Keytesville, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS63 KEAX 090733
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
233 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and few storms expected this morning across far eastern KS
  and western MO.
- Well above normal temperatures expected for the later half of
  the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Similar to last night, IR and nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery shows ACCAS developing (as of 06-07Z) over eastern KS. A few
showers and storms were also noted on radar in eastern KS as
well with this activity. This shows up well with the 305K
isentropic plots as an area of strong ascent in eastern KS
coupled with modest moisture transport into the area.
Additionally, water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
moving southeast out of NE into north central KS, with
convection associated with it. As of writing this (around 07Z)
the area of strong isentropic ascent should lead to an
increasing coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms in the
predawn hours in eastern KS and into adjacent areas of MO. As
the shortwave advances southeastward, the strongest ascent will
be shunted southward and eventually we`ll see subsidence as the
wave passes through later this morning, winding down
precipitation chances from north to south. Instability continue
to look weak with only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE noted in far
eastern KS and adjacent areas of MO. Given this, the threat of
severe storms looks very low. Precipitation amounts continue to
look to be in the couple tenths of an inch to perhaps half an
inch range with little or no precipitation east of I-35 and
I-49.
Temperatures will trend above normal for the latter half of the
week. Overall, the forecast here has changed little. Upper-level
ridging builds into the middle of the country with persistent
southerly to southwesterly low-level flow. The upper ridge axis
moves right over the area late in the week and into the weekend and
given this pattern, temperatures in the 90s look likely. Dewpoints
have been consistently forecast to be in the lower 60s during the
afternoon so despite the hot air temperatures, humidity values
will be relatively low so heat index values may only be a degree
or two warmer than the air temperature during peak heating. The
hottest day looks like Saturday and we start to see some
pockets of red HeatRisk noted in the forecast area. Overall,
don`t foresee any heat headlines with these above normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Conds are expected to remain VFR thru the pd. Bkn mid-lvl accus
around 9-10kft is dvlpg over ern KS and will mov into the TAF
sites right around the valid TAF time. Showers are expected to
develop and mov into the TAF sites btn 12Z-14Z with ovc skies
btn 4-5kft...in addition vis may be reduced to 6SM in lgt shra.
Shra are expected to persist thru 17Z-18Z before shifting south
and east of the TAF sites however bkn-ovc cigs around 5kft are
fcst thru 00Z-02Z aft which they will scatter. Winds will be out
of the SSE/S btn 6-12kts thru the TAF pd.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion