Key Biscayne, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

576
FXUS62 KMFL 251110
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
710 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf will remain in control
today, with light winds remaining in place across South FL.
Convection today will again be sea-breeze driven, although with
steering flows aloft in more of a westerly direction today, expect
to see more convective activity across the east coast metro. High
temps this afternoon will generally be in the lower 90s. Convection
dissipates this evening and outside of a few coastal showers most
locations should remain dry. Low temps will range from the mid to
upper 70s, with some lower 70s possible around the lake.
On Friday a trough starts to dig down into the Gulf, while a surface
front will approach the Florida panhandle by the evening. Forecast
soundings show some mid level drier air working it`s way into the
region, with PWAT values dropping slightly to 1.9-2.0 inches.
Afternoon and early evening convection is still expected and will
mainly be sea-breeze driven again. With WSW flow aloft, highest PoPs
will once again favor inland locations and western portions of the
east coast metro. High temps on Friday will remain above normal
generally reaching the lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
This weekend the upper level trough will become a cut off low over
the SE US while the frontal boundary will advance only to about
central FL before slowly dissipating early to middle of next week.
Main attention continues to be a disturbance in the eastern
Caribbean which has a medium chance of formation in the next 48
hours and a high chance of formation in the next 7 days. This
disturbance is most likely to form somewhere east or southeast of
Florida. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding what
if any impacts there will be to South FL. Factors that will come
into play include how it will react with Tropical Storm Humberto to
its east, and also how it could potentially interact with the upper
level low over the SE US and the frontal boundary which will be
stationary off the SE US coast. Due to all of the uncertainty, will
continue to stay fairly close to the NBM forecast which has roughly
40-50 PoPs for the weekend, and slightly lower 30-40 PoPs for early
next week.
Temperatures during the extended period will remain slightly above
normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps each night
will range from the lower 70s around the lake to mid and upper 70s
for the rest of South FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Light and variable winds through around 15Z, then becoming E/SE
5-10 kts this afternoon into early evening. APF should again
experience a westerly afternoon Gulf breeze. Scattered
thunderstorms expected after 15Z which may bring brief periods of
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis, along with gusty winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Gentle easterly breeze expected through the end of the week, with
afternoon and early evening westerly breeze expected in the Gulf
waters. Seas in the Atlantic generally 2 ft or less through Friday,
and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms each day may
result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  91  77 /  60  40  50  30
West Kendall     91  76  92  76 /  60  30  50  20
Opa-Locka        92  77  92  77 /  60  40  50  30
Homestead        91  76  90  76 /  50  30  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  77  90  77 /  60  40  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  77  91  77 /  60  40  40  30
Pembroke Pines   93  77  93  77 /  60  40  50  30
West Palm Beach  91  76  90  76 /  60  40  40  30
Boca Raton       91  76  92  76 /  60  40  40  30
Naples           91  77  90  77 /  30  20  20  10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion