121 FXUS63 KILX 250519 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers can be expected near and south of I-72 through this evening. Most will be light, but an isolated thunderstorm is possible.
- A stretch of dry weather returns Thursday through at least early next week, with temperatures returning to above normal (highs reaching the 80s by the weekend).
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A relatively stationary upper level low remains over the Great Lakes, with a long wave trough extending southwestward through central IL into the southern Plains. One last shortwave disturbance, currently centered over western AR is poised to eject through southern IL late this afternoon and evening. Until then, enough weak lift and diurnal heating should allow scattered light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two to continue mainly from near I-72 southward ahead of the upper level trough axis. The shortwave could enhance shower activity mainly south of I-70. As the main upper trough axis migrates slowly southeastward, shower activity should taper off from northwest to southeast tonight, ending across the area by Thursday morning.
A long wave high pressure ridge, currently extending from the southwest U.S. to the northern Plains, will edge eastward the next few days, becoming the dominant influence on central IL`s weather. As this ridge amplifies and shifts over central IL late this weekend into early next week, a warming trend will continue to trend temperatures upward. Highs will remain in the upper 70s Thursday following the recent frontal passage and in the northwest flow behind the outgoing trough axis, then trend upward to around 80 Friday, and eventually mid to upper 80s by Sunday into the middle of next week. Lows look to be primarily in the 50s for the upcoming week, with the coldest morning being lower 50s Friday morning, gradually increasing to upper 50s by early next week.
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.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
High pressure will inch towards the region through the period resulting in diminishing north to northwest winds through the day Thursday. Will have to monitor for some patchy MVFR ceilings over the region tonight but VFR conditions will prevail through the day Thursday.
Deubelbeiss
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion