Jacksboro, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

336
FXUS64 KFWD 161834
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
134 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon
  highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated (10-20% chance) showers and storms are expected this
  afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.
- There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms on a daily basis
  beginning late Wednesday and continuing through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/
Similar to the last couple of days, a few isolated showers and
storms are expected develop this afternoon across the region. The
overall synoptic pattern has not changed much, so anything that
develop should be fairly short-lived and diminish in the early
evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. The main hazard
with any storms will be occasional lightning, brief
moderate/heavy rain, and gusty winds. Otherwise, the high
temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s range and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
A slow moving upper trough will continue to shift eastward into
the northern and central Plains on Wednesday, keeping the best
lift well north of our area. Still, a few diurnally driven
isolated showers and storms may develop in the afternoon through
early evening across portions of North and Central TX. Some of
the stronger showers/storms may be capable of producing gusty
winds and brief heavy rain. Temperatures will be very similar to
today, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through early Next Week/
We will wrap up the week with low to medium rain chances. A large
scale trough will remain centered near the northern/central
Plains, but should eventually shift eastward toward the eastern
U.S. toward the weekend. While the best source of lift will remain
north of our area, some of the energy of the disturbances will
travel south and closer to our region. The associated cold front
will travel southward, but unfortunately will become nearly
stationary north of our area in Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle.
Rain chances will increase for North Texas during the day on
Thursday, especially Thursday night into Friday but they are still
capped at 40-50% along the Red River. For Central Texas, low rain
chances will exist during Friday afternoon and evening period
with the help of daytime heating but most locations will likely
remain dry.
Weekend & Early Next Week: We will keep the low rain chances for
North Texas over the weekend but most locations will remain dry.
The pattern is forecast to become a little more active early next
week as a stronger mid-level system moves southward and closer to
our region. Details are still uncertain at this time, but there
is a potential we could see some organized convection which may
increase the risk for severe weather.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Concerns...low probability of isolated convection this afternoon
and again Wednesday afternoon.
VFR conditions will continue across all sites with light
southerly winds. A few isolated showers/storms will likely
develop this afternoon, but confidence in exact location is
fairly low (less than 15%) to include it in the TAF. If a storm
develops, the main hazards will be lightning and brief
gusty/erratic winds. Any activity in the region should diminish
in the evening with quiet weather expected overnight. Another
round of isolated convection is expected Wednesday afternoon but
uncertainty in timing and location are too high to include it in
the forecast. Slightly better rain/storm chances will arrive
towards the end of the week.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  73  94  73  92 /  20  20  20   5  10
Waco                93  71  93  71  92 /  20  20  20   0   5
Paris               94  69  93  69  90 /  20  20  20   5  20
Denton              94  69  94  70  92 /  20  20  20   5  20
McKinney            94  70  93  70  92 /  20  20  20   5  20
Dallas              94  75  95  74  93 /  20  20  20   5  10
Terrell             93  70  92  70  91 /  20  20  20   5  10
Corsicana           93  72  93  72  92 /  20  20  20   5  10
Temple              92  69  92  69  92 /  20  20  20   0   5
Mineral Wells       94  67  94  68  92 /  20  20  20   0  10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion