Jacinto City, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

584
FXUS64 KHGX 221739
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms continue into
  midweek with higher rain chances closer to the coast.
- Higher chance of showers/storms on Wednesday as a frontal
  boundary pushes through the region. Locally heavy rainfall and
  strong wind gusts will be possible in any stronger storms.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Ahhh it`s the first day of fall and there`s a chill in the
air...wait that might just be the A/C let me actually go outside. Oh
it`s in the 90s still, that makes much more sense! Although the
Autumnal Equinox occurs today at 1:19pm CDT, it`ll still feel like
it`s late summer here in Southeast Texas with high temperatures
topping out mainly in the low 90s today. Thanks to plentiful
moisture and embedded shortwaves aloft (northwesterly flow aloft
is king!), there are still scattered showers and thunderstorms out
and about today with coastal locations having the highest rain
chances. PW values are mainly in the 1.6-1.9" range, so it`s not
entirely out of the question to see quick heavy downpours.
Northwesterly flow aloft becomes westerly flow aloft going towards
the middle of the work week as mid level high pressure over
northern Mexico expands eastward into Texas and a trough axis
gradually drifts closer. We`ll see a 1-2F increase in
temperatures coming up on Tuesday, so some mid 90s will be
possible across portions of the Brazos Valley. Overnight
temperatures remain above normal as well with lows in the mid to
upper 70s tonight and Tuesday night...neat!
Chances for showers and storms stick around with us through the
first half of the work week, but will peak on Wednesday. Y`all are
gonna love the reason why! Fall technically starts today (Monday),
but we won`t get a fall-like feel to the air until a cold front
pushes through on Wednesday/Thursday. An upper level low over the
Great Lakes region will swing its associated trough axis through
the Central Plains and will be the catalyst for this incoming
drier airmass. There will be a line of showers and storms
associated with this frontal boundary...and these storms may be
more associated with a prefrontal trough as drier air lags behind
and doesn`t move in until Thursday. So, we`re looking at a line of
showers/storms pushing in on Wednesday and with PW values surging
well above the 90th percentile (~2.01"), some of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall/high
rainfall rates. As a result, WPC has outlined most of Southeast
Texas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) on
Wednesday. Speaking of stronger storms, convergence along the
front or trough combined with daytime heating could be enough for
a few storms to be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. As a
result of that, SPC has outlined most of Southeast Texas in a
marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) on Wednesday.
The front or trough looks like it`ll linger near the coast going
into Wednesday night/Thursday morning until the real front (or
reinforcing front) comes through on Thursday. Behind that is when
drier air filters into the area leading to pleasant conditions
carrying on into the weekend. By Friday, PW values will be near or
below the 10th percentile (~0.89") and dew points will be in the
50s/60s areawide. How`s that for fall-like...well at least
Houston`s version of it. In terms of temperatures, we`re only
looking at high temperatures in the upper 80s for the latter half
of the work week and then we add some low 90s into the mix going
into the weekend. The overnight temperatures are where the
forecast really shines though! We`re looking at widespread low
temperatures in the 60s lasting into the weekend, so if you`ve
been holding out on getting that pumpkin spice latte...this`ll be
a good time for it! There`s a pumpkin spice cinnamon roll bite
recipe in my files that has been waiting for this very moment...
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Similar set-up for today as we have seen the past few days.
Scattered coastal showers have already developed and will persist
through the morning hours with isolated thunderstorms possibly
making their way north of I-10 during the afternoon. Have kept the
PROB30s for TS in the TAFs for IAH southwards during the
afternoon. Any storms that develop will dissipate by the evening
with the loss of daytime heating, but coastal showers will likely
re-emerge near daybreak tomorrow. Patchy fog has developed at CXO
again this morning, but will be dissipating within the next few
hours giving way to VFR conditions area-wide today with south-
southeasterly winds around 7-12kt. The patchy fog will likely
return to CXO late tonight, but there may also be some low CIGs
causing MVFR conditions at our northern terminals (CXO, UTS, and
CLL) late tonight as well.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds and 2 to 4 foot
seas will prevail going into midweek. Chances for shower/storms will
persist as well with higher chances in the early morning to
afternoon hours over the waters. Winds become southwesterly to
westerly on Wednesday into early Thursday as a frontal boundary
approaches. A line of showers and storms is expected along the front
as it pushes through with some potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Expect gusty northerly winds to prevail in the wake of the front
going into the end of the work week. Caution flags may be needed on
Thursday due to gusty winds.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  95  75  90 /   0  10  10  80
Houston (IAH)  77  92  78  93 /   0  40  10  80
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  81  89 /  20  40  20  70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion