Irvine, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS63 KJKL 231842
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
242 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring a
  soaking rain this week. While beneficial for the drought, this
  rain could cause localized flash flooding, especially on
  Wednesday.
- A few thunderstorms on Wednesday could become strong, with
  damaging wind gusts as the main threat. The potential for these
  storms will depend on how much the atmosphere can destabilize
  during the day.
- A wet and unsettled pattern will continue through Friday before
  cooler and drier, fall-like weather arrives for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
A complex surface analysis is underway across the CONUS, with
multiple disturbances impacting the Lower 48. The first is a surface
low centered over central Ontario, with an associated weak
stationary front extending southwestward into the Central Plains. A
second, more influential, surface low is tracking northeastward out
of central Oklahoma. This low has an eastward-extending stationary
boundary into West Tennessee and a cold front oriented southwestward
back toward the Four Corners. Locally, weak surface high pressure
prevails; however, sufficient upper-level forcing is present to
favor widespread cloud cover and the redevelopment of showers,
particularly north of the Mountain Parkway and along the I-64
corridor.
The upper-level flow pattern is consistent with the surface
features. At H5, a closed upper-level low is favoring the Ontario
surface low. However, the dominant feature is a positively-tilted
longwave trough that covers much of the States east of the Rockies.
The Oklahoma surface low is located at the base of this trough. The
local forecast area, however, is under a regime of quasi-zonal flow
with weak perturbations and vorticity maxima moving through. These
perturbations are the primary drivers for the redevelopment of
showers and storms this afternoon. Widespread cloud cover is
limiting the amount of instability, thereby restricting the
potential for stronger storm development. As a result, the SPC has
placed the area under a General Thunder category. The extensive
cloud cover has also limited surface heating, with temperatures only
climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s, which will likely be the
daytime high. Showers and storms will increase in coverage from
isolated to scattered through the remainder of the afternoon, before
dissipating toward the overnight. This will lead to a mostly quiet
night with lows falling into the low to mid-60s.
The Oklahoma surface low is expected to approach the area Wednesday
morning. The stationary boundary will lift northward as a warm
front, bringing the first round of showers and storms early in the
day. Due to the early timing, the severe weather threat is low.
However, a hydrologic threat will exist as PWs values reach 1.75
inches and a favorable, skinny CAPE profile supports efficient
rainfall. This may lead to periods of heavy rain during the morning.
The surface low will track through the Commonwealth throughout the
day, leading to continued threats for showers and thunderstorms. The
severe weather threat remains largely limited as the instability
ingredient will be lacking despite increased shear and the
development of a LLJ Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, a
strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, a threat also
highlighted by the SPCs Day 2 Marginal Risk. The hydrologic threat
will redevelop in the afternoon and evening as CAPE profiles become
even more conducive to efficient rainfall. Furthermore, PW values
will increase to 1.90 inches, lending more credence to an enhanced
heavy rainfall event. This threat is highlighted by the WPCs Day 2
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Showers and storms will persist
through the end of the forecast period before a cold front is
expected to pass early in the long-term period.
The forecast period will be highlighted by periods of showers and
storms, some of which could be strong and bring gusty winds. The
most significant threat will be the potential for heavy rainfall
through Thursday. Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the upper
70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid-60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
For Thursday, a positive upper trough will move into the area with
jet dynamics producing fronto-genetic forcing along an approaching
frontal boundary. A band of showers and storms will move across the
region producing heavy rains with greatest potential of flooding
near the KY/VA and KY/TN statelines. Severe threat is marginal and
dependent on any breaks in the cloud to enhance instability.
Ensemble composite analysis shows best CAPE/SHEAR across the far
south/southeast sections, southward into the Tennessee valley.
For the extended period from Friday through early next week shows a
large difference in solutions from the deterministic GFS and ECMWF.
Based this period on the Ensemble Cluster Analysis solution which
pulls a positive tilted upper trough across the region Friday which
becomes quasi-stationary over the southeast/eastern United States.
For Friday, frontal boundary will be east of the area with enough
wrap-around moisture to produce a low chance of showers near the
KY/VA stateline. Otherwise, plenty of low-level moisture with mostly
cloudy sky.
For Saturday, the near stationary trough axis across the eastern
United States with wrap-around moisture continuing to produce a
chance of showers especially near the KY/VA stateline with sky cover
varying from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Sky becomes mostly
clear Saturday night allowing for good radiational cooling
conditions so will modify the mins for the valley/ridge temperature
differences.
For Sunday and Monday, upper trough axis remains east/southeast of
the area with the region under northerly/northeast flow. Partly
cloudy to mostly clear sky with mostly dry conditions anticipated.
Ensembles/deterministic models hint at possible inverted surface
trough across the area so can not rule out a shower near the KY/VA
and KY/TN stateline due to the proximity of the upper
trough/wrap- around moisture/limited instability. For Tuesday,
persistent and weakening upper trough over the southeast United
States. Confidence is too low to include a chance of showers and
expect dry conditions.
Sky remains mostly clear to partly cloudy at night allowing for good
radiational cooling conditions so will modify the mins for the
valley/ridge temperature differences.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
A combination of categories exists across all TAF sites with this
issuance. TAFs are fluctuating between MVFR and VFR as low CIGS
exist across the area. Showers are starting to redevelop this
afternoon across the area; therefore, opted to go with a PROB30
through the remainder of the afternoon through 00Z/Wednesday. A
brief lull in activity is expected before another PROB30 goes into
effect through 05Z-09Z/Wednesday morning. Decreasing conditions
are expected after 10Z as a warm front lifts north through the
area. Showers and thunderstorms coupled with low CIGs and poor
VSBY will lead to near LIFR, IFR and MVFR conditions for the
remainder of the period. Winds are forecast to be light and
variable through the period; however, gusty and erratic winds will
accompany thunderstorms through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion