399 FXUS64 KBMX 080002 AFDBMXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 702 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
GOES TPW imagery shows a large area of much drier air pushing across the area. PWATs currently range from 0.50" across our northwestern areas to 1.5" over our far southeastern counties. This influx of dry air will keep us dry through the short term (and really over the next week). Winds will pick up a bit through early this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Gusts will generally be up to 20 MPH with a low chance of gusts over 25 MPH.
Temperatures will be rather pleasant over the next couple of days with highs in the low to mid 80s with lows ranging from the mid 50s to the low 60s.
95/Castillo
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.LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
No changes needed with this long term forecast update. We will see very low rain chances across our southern counties early in the work week as we see a slight uptick in moisture as a weak trough hovers aloft. Upper level ridging is on track to build in by the middle of the work week.
95/Castillo
Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
Guidance continues to indicate a rain free pattern for the extended. The Gulf Coast front should continue further SWD through the week with E Conus surface ridging expected to continue. In the upper levels, weak troughing will be present across the Deep South, but with only meager moisture available. Any precip will likely remain to the S of C AL. For the second half of the week, upper ridging spreads across the Central US from W TX with weak NRLY flow into AL and dry conditions. High temperatures slowly moderate upward through the extended. While lows should increase some for Monday night, overall lows should remain steady through the rest week and be a little below normal for early/mid Sept.
08
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging in place across much of the ERN half of Conus. Look for NRLY winds tonight becoming NE-ENE during the day on Mon around the ridge. Minimal cloud cover is anticipated tonight. Some cirrus moves in on Mon.
08
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.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain free weather is forecast to prevail across Central Alabama for the most part through next week. While drier, post-frontal air will overspread the region, afternoon minimum RHs are currently forecast to average above critical thresholds. However, if dew points trend slightly lower mid to late week, RHs could bottom out just below currently forecast minimums in the lower 30s. 20 foot winds will be northerly around 10 mph on Sunday and then northeast to east between 5-10 mph Monday and Tuesday.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 59 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 60 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 60 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 64 82 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 63 85 65 84 / 0 10 0 10
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.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...95/Castillo LONG TERM....95/Castillo/08 AVIATION...08
NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion