Hubert, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

276
FXUS62 KMHX 291952
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
352 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto are
expected to remain offshore, but will bring coastal impacts to
the area through late week due to their respective swells.
Strong high pressure will build in from the north into the
weekend bringing with it a prolonged period of strong NE winds
midweek and cooler and drier conditions mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Mon...A tropical plume of moisture extending
northward from Imelda continues to set up shop JUST, west of our
forecast area. Expect this trend to continue into the evening
with the most steady and heaviest rains toward Wilmington and
Myrtle Beach. For our area, an expanding area of scattered
heavy showers continues to blossom just off show south of Cape
HAtteras. While not as widespread, any of these showers will be
capable of producing locally heavy rain through evening as they
move onshore. Our highest threat for scattered showers producing
brief heavy downpours will be near and south of a line from
Ocracoke Island west to Kinston. North of here a few showers
can`t be ruled out, but they will be even more scattered in
nature. In some of the heaviest showers, a rumble of thunder or
two can`t be ruled out, especially near the Crystal Coast.
While we do not expect widespread heavy rains this evening, with
the east-west orientation, some heavier rain may train over the
same area for a brief time. This will likely lead to at least
some ponding of water in urban area, again especially toward
the Crystal Coast. Later this evening and especially overnight,
a marked decrease in rain chances are expected with the loss of
daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tue...As Imelda moves east Tuesday, the tropical
plume of moisture mentioned above, will shift every so slightly
east. While a lull in showers may occur early Tuesday,
eventually, a more organized area of showers is expected to
move back into the area from the west. By this time however we
feel the chances for heavier rain will be greatly diminished.
PWATS(a good measure for how much moisture is in the atmosphere)
will have decreased from well over 2" today, to closer to 1.75"
Tuesday. Clouds will again hold temps in the 70s, with more
pronounced drying holding off until later in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1500 Monday...
Key Messages:
- NHC`s official forecast for TS Imelda continues to be promising
for ENC; turning E well before it reaches the Coastal Carolinas.
- TS Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto are expected to bring
coastal impacts to the area into the end of the week.
- Strong high pressure building in from the N will lead to a
   prolonged period of stout NEerly winds. Wind Advisory has
   been issued for portions of the Outer Banks and areas
   immediately adjacent to the Sern Pamlico Sound.
Not much change in the forecast since the previous update as all
focus will be on the impacts that TS Imelda and Hurricane Humberto
bring to ENC this week. While both systems will remain well
offshore, long period swell energy from Humberto will begin to
impact the waters today, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. NHC`s latest
official forecast has Tropical Storm Imelda strengthening as it
moves Nward well offshore of the East Coast of FL today and reaching
hurricane strength by Tuesday morning while turning Eward well
before reaching the FL/GA border latitude and continuing an
Eward motion while gradually weakening through midweek.
Tropical moisture is still expected to spread over ECONUS from the S
on TUE, keeping light rain in the forecast as the moisture slides
over the incoming high, and swell will be increasing. With the
current forecasted trends in guidance for both systems, rain chances
and accumulation forecasts continue to step down towards more normal
levels typical of late summer-time. High pressure slides in from the
north at the start of the period and remains in place into next
weekend keeping the area pretty dry after Tue as upper ridging takes
control. The main concerns for this week are becoming more focused
on periods of strong NEerly gradient winds due to the incoming high
pressure with the potential for wind advisory criteria to be met
across portion of the OBX Tue/Wed. Wind Advisory has been issued
for all of Hatteras Island, Ocracoke Island, and areas
immediately adjacent to Sern Pamlico and Core Sounds in Eern
Carteret Co for sunset Tuesday evening to sunset Wed evening.
These areas are where confidence was highest that strong
sustained winds and gusts would occur coming off the waters.
Opted to leave out NOBX from the advisory for now, but there is
a nonzero chance they could be added. Coastal impacts are
coming into clearer focus due to the incoming swell as well,
(see TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section below for more details).
Otherwise avg to slightly below avg temps with all rain
remaining offshore expected through the long term given the
NE`rly flow.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 130 PM Mon...Widespread sub-VFR cigs expected through the
period. Widespread IFR cigs now at most of the terminals in a
persistent moist flow over the terminals. We do have a small
area of slightly better CIGS near Bogue Field. As this lifts
northward, we may have a brief window of improvement to MVFR or
even briefly VFR at KEWN and even KOAJ.
Elsewhere, IFR to low end MVFR cigs will continue through
evening. Any terminals that see any improvement briefly this
afternoon, will return to IFR overnight. May approach airport
minimums tonight after 05Z, with CIGS falling. IFR cigs Tuesday
at least in the morning, with a slow possible improvement toward
the end of the TAF period.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 1530 Mon...
Sub-VFR conditions expected on Tuesday as tropical moisture from TS
Imelda streams over the area and scattered showers and low clouds
remain prevalent. High pressure begins to build in from the north on
Wed drying things out and allowing for VFR conditions to return for
the rest of the week. However, with a tight pressure gradient
between the high pressure building in from the north and TS Imelda
to our east expect gusty NE`rly winds through at least Thurs morning
with widespread wind gusts of about 15-25 kts inland and 25-35 kts
along the immediate coast and OBX. Winds do finally ease closer to
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Deteriorating conditions expected across the
waters this evening and tonight as gradient tightens between
high pressure to the north and offshore Hurricane Humberto and
TS Imelda to the S and SE. Latest obs show NE winds 15-20 kt
with seas 4-6 ft. NE winds increasing to 15-25 kt this afternoon
and tonight. Long period swell (5-9 ft/12-14 sec) from distant
Humberto will continue to build across the waters tonight,
building seas to 4-7 ft this afternoon and 6-11 ft tonight. SCAs
continue in the short term.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 1500 Monday...
Key Message
- Dangerous marine conditions expected through the period, with
   swell from two tropical cyclones impacting the waters as well
   as strong NEerly gradient winds expected through much of the
   work-week.
- Gale watches over all coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound
   have been upgraded to Gale Warnings.
- Gale watch for northern sounds and Alligator River remains in
   place.
- SCAs for Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers remain in
   place.
No significant changes to the forecast thinking as two tropical
cyclones will impact the waters this week. Hurricane Humberto
is expected to remain well offshore, though long period swell
energy from this system will peak Tuesday and Wednesday across
our coastal waters. In addition to this, TS Imelda is forecast
to take a turn to the E starting tonight while continuing to
strengthen to hurricane strength. Regardless of the storm making
this turn, it will still send strong swell Nward into our
waters. Gradient wind due to the strong high pressure building
in from the N will bring a long duration of gales to the
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Further discussion of inside
waters below. Once gales do end, SCA`s will likely replace them
with the potential for SCA`s due to 6+ ft waves across our
coastal waters lasting through the weekend with SCA`s easing
across our inland waters slightly sooner. Building seas (10-15
ft) by Tuesday and expected to remain elevated, potentially
increasing further into late-week.
Inside waters (not PamSound)...have opted to keep headlines over
these areas the same as previous iterations. The forecast
trends for the Nern sounds/Alligator River have been slightly
weaker and current official forecast keeps these areas under
Gale criteria. However, confidence was not high enough to drop
the Gale Watch and box us in to just SCAs just yet, especially
with funneling potential for Croatan and Roanoke Sounds and the
Alligator River. Confidence is high enough that Pam/Pungo Rivers
will remain at SCA level due to their location and sheltering
from the these wind directions. The vast majority of the Neuse
River will remain in SCA conditions, but the mouth of the river
could see some gale force gusts off the Pamlico Sound. Current
thinking is that`s not enough to warrant Gale Warning issuance
for the entire river. Want to give midnight shift one more cut
at winds and allow them to make the decision for Nern
sounds/Alligator River and the Neuse River.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1530 Monday...No changes to any of the coastal flooding
headlines with all warnings and advisories remaining in place.
Timing is slightly different for each product, but in general
have advisories and warnings starting up Tue morning/evening
across ENC. High surf advisories remain unchanged.
Oceanside...
The forecast remains on track as long period swell from distant
Humberto has started to arrive with Onslow Bay buoy reporting
6ft@14 earlier this afternoon. Humberto swell still expected to
peak Tuesday and Wednesday. While Humberto begins to move away
later this week, swell from Imelda then quickly arrives into the
area and likely peaks closer to the Wednesday and Thursday
timeframe. As a result, swell impacts are expected to last much
of the upcoming week, which include dangerous rip currents,
large breaking waves, and the potential for ocean overwash,
coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant
impacts at the moment look to be across portions of the OBX near
Hatteras Island and Ocracoke where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation
is possible starting around Tue/Wed given weakened dune
structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible
across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX. The strong NEerly winds
due to the strong high pressure may exacerbate the issues
brought on from the strong swell. High surf advisories have
been put in place from N Topsail Beach northward through the
entirety of OBX to Duck starting this morning through much of
the work week though they potentially could last into next
weekend.
Inside Waters... As well as the swell impacting the coast, a
period of strong NEerly/onshore winds associated with a cold
front will increase the risk for water level rises on the
inland sounds and rivers mid to late week. 1-2ft of inundation
is expected along the Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers
starting around Tue/Wed. Not expecting inundation for soundside
areas adjacent to Bogue and Core Sounds, as there is plenty of
places for the water to go, but water levels are expected to be
higher than normal. We may also see low water level concerns for
Nern sounds late week.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for NCZ080-094-194.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NCZ196-204-205.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ196-204-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NCZ203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...EH/RCF
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion