Horton, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

839
FXUS64 KHUN 250733
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
233 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As of around 2 AM storms have formed along a lingering boundary
in NE AL and are propagating NE through Dekalb County. Lingering
CAPE of around 300-500 J/kg is supporting come cloud to cloud
lightning however the main concern with any and all showers and
storms through sunrise will be heavy rainfall. We remain a very
saturated airmass with high PWATS near 2" and mid and low level RH
near 100%. This allowing very efficient rainfall production with
radar estimated rain rates between 1-3 inches per hour.
Fortunately storms are currently moving fast enough to avoid flash
flooding but brief nuisance flooding is likely with the current
storm in NE AL and any additional storms. Should convection start
to train, flash flooding may become a more prominent concern.
The cold front prompting several stormy days is forecast to move
through the TN Valley during the day today. This will
unfortunately provide another source of lift to trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day with the best chances
being in the afternoon aided by diurnal heating. Heavy rainfall
will once again be the main concern especially if storms set up
over areas that received heavy rainfall in the last 24 hours.
Storms will be capable of very efficient rainfall products. Even
if they move fast enough to dissuade flash flooding, nuisance
flooding and torrential rainfall will be hazardous for those on
the roadways. Storms should wane as sunsets and the front begins
to move SE with dry conditions gradually building in behind the
front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A push of somewhat drier air should end rain chances over our
western areas Thursday evening. But residual moisture remaining
over our more eastern areas will allow for lower end rain chances
Thu evening, with rain ending after midnight. The cooler airmass
will be somewhat noticeable, as low temperatures by Friday morning
cool into the lower 60s. The frontal boundary during Friday should
be slowly shifting to the east across the Georgia to Virginia
Piedmont. It`s proximity to the east and sufficient lower level
moisture remaining; along with daytime heating, will result in
isolated to scattered (15-40% - higher chances to the east) shower
and thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon. Outside of showers, a
bit cooler Fri with highs in the mid 70s east to around 80 west.
Temperatures should cool a bit more Fri night, falling into the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday to close out the week
should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lower end shower
chances cannot be ruled out Sat afternoon for locations east of
the I-65 corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Late this weekend into early next week, there is model agreement
that an upper level ridge is forecast to creep into the Tennessee
Valley from the west. Sfc high pressure will subsequently take over
the region, allowing mostly dry conditions through the long term
period. Highs during this time are forecast to be in the low to mid
80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. One thing to
watch will be how the tropics unfold to our east by mid week and if
we get any additional moisture and resultant rainfall. Overall,
however, should be a benign forecast with very low chances for
rainfall each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
MVFR to IFR ceilings will plague the forecast for the first half
of the TAF period at both terminals. Isolated showers will also be
possible through around 12Z as indicated in the TEMPO group.
Beyond 12Z low ceiling will linger yet rain looks to taper off.
VFR conditions will build in beyond 18Z with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion