Honora, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

362
FXUS62 KCAE 021503 AAA
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1103 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather likely through the remainder of the week.
Northeasterly flow strengthens will promote cooler than normal
temperatures. Rain chances increase again Sunday and into early
next week as moisture increases.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cool, dry conditions
Satellite imagery shows generally sunny skies across the
forecast area this morning. CAE VAD VWP shows continued enhanced
low level jet winds around 25 to 30 knots up through 2500ft. As
expected, winds have picked up and gusts around 20 to 25 mph
should be common through the afternoon as the inversion has
broken and the stronger winds mix down. Temperatures should be a
bit cooler today with the cold advection as high pressure
continues to ridge down east of the Appalachians today with
highs in the mid to upper 70s expected. Wind gusts should
diminish this evening but winds will remain elevated tonight
with another low level jet preventing ideal radiational cooling.
However, temperatures will still drop into the low to mid 50s
with the dry air mass in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Continued cool and dry with occasionally breezy winds.
Upper ridging will be in place during the short term while
surface high pressure remains centered off the New England
coast. This will maintain the overall weather pattern across
the FA during the period. Northeasterly winds will keep dry air
in place with below normal temperatures. PWATs will remain low
on Friday, gradually rising Saturday and especially Saturday
night as winds shift more easterly. Winds could be breezy at
times with gusts of 20 to 25 mph, higher on area lakes. In
terms of temperatures, the deterministic NBM guidance remains at
or above the 75th percentile, so while forecast highs are in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, would not be surprised if they end
up even further below normal. Friday should be mostly sunny but
additional cloudiness is expected on Saturday as PWATs rise.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances return during the extended.
- Temperatures warm through the period.
Not much change to the forecast in the long term. Rain chances
return on Sunday as flow shifts out of the east allowing PWATs
to rise above seasonal values. There will be a daily chance of
showers, especially Sunday and Monday. Despite the clouds and
rain, temperatures are expected to gradually rise as upper
ridging remains in place. Wednesday is expected to be the
warmest day of the week as a cold front approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions likely through the 24hr forecast period.
KCAE VAD wind profile shows a 30 kt LLJ around 2,000 ft.
Persistent NE flow will continue through the 24 hr TAF period.
Winds have increased with the inversion breaking and
northeasterly winds around 10 to 15 with gusts to 25 expected
into the afternoon. Dry air will prevent convection and keep
conditions VFR with only a few high clouds overnight. No fog
concerns given elevated winds and dry air mass.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air remains in place through
Friday night. Moisture returns to the region Saturday which will
lead to increasing rain chances and the possibility of daily
restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion