Higginson, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS64 KLZK 171716
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
-Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue nearly every day
into the middle of next week
-Best chances for seeing more scattered/numerous showers/storms will
come Fri
-Hot/humid conditions will continue into Thu...then somewhat cooler
conditions are expected late this week into the middle of next week
-Organized severe weather is not expected at this time...but an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Not much change in the forecast from previous days. Continue to see
potential for diurnally driven convection each day through Thu
afternoon...with slight to low end chance POPs forecast. Isolated to
widely scattered convection will be possible each afternoon...with
the overall threat for seeing SVR Wx remaining low. However...like
in previous days...there will be some potential for an isolated
strong to briefly SVR storm due to high afternoon CAPE. Locally
heavy rainfall...gusty winds...and hail will be the primary threats
with the strongest activity.
Highs through Thu will remain well above normal in the 80s and 90s.
However...an upper shortwave will pass ESE over the NRN portions of
AR on Fri into Fri night...bringing better chances for more
scattered convection on Fri into Fri night. Given this upper
shortwave will weaken as it approaches...will continue with the
potential for organized strong to SVR Wx to remain low. Again...this
doesn`t rule out any isolated strong/SVR convection however.
Flow aloft will become more persistently NW by the weekend into
early next week. Additional upper waves will pass over the region in
this NW flow aloft...with some continued POPs forecast through the
end of the forecast. In fact...there are some indications a closed
upper low may move into the region by the middle of next week. This
will mostly likely keep temps cooler than in the past week...at
least a bit closer to normal for mid/late Sep. Details on best
precip chances will be a bit more uncertain however...given timing
differences of the upper low moving into the region...and what upper
waves may pass overhead and when.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible over Arkansas
this afternoon, but confidence is too low to place at any one TAF
site at this time. Main aviation impacts for any terminal that
sees a shower or thunderstorm would be a brief period of MVFR/IFR,
and gusty outflow winds. Light and variable winds will likely
become calm at most locations overnight, then light and variable
with a predominately southernly component after sunrise on
Thursday morning. Some afternoon CU and isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon at the end of the
forecast period with the best chances likely over western
Arkansas, but confidence remains too low in timing/placement to
place in TAFs at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  95  66  89 /  20  10  20  50
Camden AR         67  93  67  89 /  20  10  10  40
Harrison AR       66  90  64  83 /  30  30  50  60
Hot Springs AR    68  94  68  89 /  20  20  20  60
Little Rock   AR  70  93  70  87 /  20  20  10  40
Monticello AR     69  95  69  91 /  20  10   0  30
Mount Ida AR      66  93  66  87 /  20  30  30  60
Mountain Home AR  66  94  65  86 /  20  20  40  60
Newport AR        67  96  69  90 /  10  10  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     68  95  69  89 /  20  10   0  30
Russellville AR   69  95  69  88 /  20  20  30  60
Searcy AR         67  95  67  89 /  20  20  10  40
Stuttgart AR      69  95  69  89 /  20  10  10  30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...Kelly

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion