Hickory Creek, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

382
FXUS64 KFWD 031034
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week with
  little chance for rainfall.
- A weak cold front may approach our region towards the middle of
  next week which could result in low rain chances (20%) by
  Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1255 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025/
/Through Tonight/
Largely benign weather will prevail through the short term with
light ESE low-level flow prevailing. Sufficient moisture for a
diurnal cumulus field will be available this afternoon though, and
with Central Texas being positioned on the far outer periphery of
a tropical low centered over the Gulf, a couple of diurnally
driven isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out across our
southern zones. However, coverage of any measurable precipitation
will be less than 10%. Otherwise, expect another anomalously
warm afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s, about 10 degrees
above normal for early October.
-Stalley
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1255 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025/
/Saturday Onward/
Mid-level heights will continue to build during the upcoming
weekend as Texas remains placed between troughing over the
Intermountain West and an ill-defined tropical low in the Gulf.
This will lead to above-normal temperatures for at least the
first few days of the extended forecast period, with highs in the
upper 80s to mid 90s through early next week. Northern Plains
troughing could drag a weak cold front southeastward into parts of
North Texas next Tuesday/Wednesday which would offer at least
some low rain chances of 20-30% through the midweek period. An
attendant increase in cloud cover would likely shave a few degrees
off of temperatures should this solution materialize, although
readings are likely to remain at or above normal through the rest
of the extended period.
-Stalley
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/
VFR conditions will continue through the period, with a few
daytime cumulus at 6 kft and passing cirrus being the extent of
cloud cover. ESE winds at 5-10 kts will prevail.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  67  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                92  65  89  66  90 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               90  60  86  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  62  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            91  62  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              92  67  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             91  61  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           91  65  90  66  91 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              91  64  89  63  90 /  10   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       92  63  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion