Herd, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

709
FXUS64 KTSA 182258
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Storm chances/coverage is expected to ramp up this afternoon
   and tonight. There will be some uptick in severe weather
   potential, as well as locally heavy rainfall potential.
- Storm chances shift to the east by Friday afternoon, before
   ramping back up this weekend in association with another
   passing wave.
- A pattern change is expected next week which will lead to
   cooler, cloudier and wetter weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday morning)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
WV imagery clearly depicts an advancing shortwave trough, with a
PV max rotating around the basal portion of the trough over the SW
KS/NW OK border region. Lift in advance of the system and its weak
associated front is forcing a band of elevated showers and a few
storms stretching from eastern KS down toward central/west-central
OK. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest either that this activity
gradually strengthens or new more surface-based development
occurs just ahead of it as it lifts east-northeast into the Ozarks
this afternoon and evening. Increasing flow aloft suggests that
some storm organization is possible, with damaging winds and hail
the main threats. Ahead of this activity, more diurnally-driven
isolated to scattered storms are developing in the terrain areas
of NW AR and SE OK, much like what we`ve seen the past few days.
Localized damaging downbursts and some hail could occur with the
stronger cells, much like the past few days. Locally heavy
rainfall is also expected with these slow-moving storms.
Looking farther ahead to around and after midnight, several CAMs
show scattered redevelopment of showers and storms roughly US
412/I-44 southward near the front and with the passage of the
upper trough axis. This activity will generally spread
east/southeast through Friday morning. PoPs were increased during
this time frame given consistent signal.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Storm chances shift mostly east of the region by Friday afternoon
with the passage of the upper trough, and most of Friday night
looks quiet. Toward Saturday morning, there is a waa/isentropic
lift signal possibly from the northward retreat of what`s left of
the aforementioned front in response to a passing wave to our
north and have inserted low PoPs over the model blend`s (NBM) dry
forecast across NE OK/NW AR. Another passing wave will keep
rain/storm chances in the forecast thru the remainder of the
weekend.
As mentioned yesterday, a pattern change is expected going into
next week, though details still have some uncertainty. A strong
cross-Pacific jet will punch into NWrn NOAM by early next week,
with the bulk of the energy going into Canada on the northern
stream. A split-flow blocking pattern is then expected to develop
to its south over the CONUS, as an upper low develops in the
weaker southern stream (possibly also merging with the
subtropical jet) somewhere over the central part of the country.
The evolution of this upper low has been difficult for the models
to handle, as is typically the case. The 00Z suite of ensemble
data has become more clustered over the solution of an upper low
developing over the central Plains the first part of next week.
That said, there are still other less likely scenarios that still
carry a meaningful percentage of ensemble solutions such as upper
low no dig and upper low dig farther west. This forecast will
follow the more likely scenarios which is more closely aligned
with the recent deterministic and NBM guidance. However, this is
subject to change since outlier solutions do occasionally pan out.
As such, a trend toward cooler/cloudier/wetter weather can be
expected next week with the initial front arriving Monday night
into Tuesday.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Scattered showers and storms are ongoing in northwest Arkansas,
but should move east of all terminals within 1-2 hours. Quiet
conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds expected
overnight. A few areas of patchy fog may develop but confidence is
low in that outcome. Another round of storms will approach from
the west near dawn, affecting the Tulsa area south through KMLC.
Brief reductions in ceilings and visibility may occur in addition
to the lightning threat. Storms will then move into northwest
Arkansas by mid morning with the same effects. Skies should clear
for most locations by late afternoon. Winds will remain light and
variable through the period except near storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  87  68  87 /  60  10  20  40
FSM   68  89  68  91 /  50  40  20  20
MLC   65  88  66  91 /  70  40  10  20
BVO   61  84  63  86 /  50  10  20  40
FYV   63  85  61  87 /  60  40  20  20
BYV   63  83  63  84 /  60  50  20  20
MKO   65  87  67  89 /  70  30  20  30
MIO   63  84  63  84 /  50  20  20  30
F10   64  87  66  89 /  70  20  20  30
HHW   67  88  66  89 /  50  40   0  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion