Head Of Island, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

522
FXUS64 KLIX 231839
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
139 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
 - Much-needed rain returns to the forecast ahead of a midweek
    cold front.
- In the wake of the cold front, a return to near normal
    temperatures can be expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Wednesday and Thursday, a weak cold front will be approaching and
move through the area, enhancing rain chances for the region.
Strong to severe showers and storms will be expected as this
system moves through. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for
severe weather by SPC. Gusty winds (40-60mph) and frequent
lightning will be the main threats. We are outlooked in a Marginal
Risk of Heavy Rainfall by WPC. With high PWs, some localized
flash flooding could be possible in urban locations if any storms
set up, but given the ongoing dry soil conditions, widespread
flash flooding issues are not a concern. As far as the timing of
the rainfall, generally expecting the system to be approaching the
area Wednesday evening and lingering through Thursday. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Friday through the weekend, once the frontal system moves through
the area, conditions will be dry and cool overall. No rainfall is
expected this weekend. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler and
more comfortable as well with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the
mid 60s before warming up again at the beginning of the work week.
Overall, expect a pleasant and cool weekend ahead weatherwise! MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist at
most area airports. Conditions will drop to MVFR at some area
airports starting overnight tonight through tomorrow, like KHDC.
Prob30 groups are in the forecast for KNEW, KBTR, and KMSY for
showers and storms tomorrow, which will drop conditions to MVFR.
Conditions at MCB will drop to LIFR and IFR briefly for fog
conditions around daybreak. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees
will be expected at all area airports throughout the forecast
period. MSW
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Surface high pressure will remain centered just off to the east-
northeast of the coastal waters through Wednesday. This will
continue to result in benign conditions with generally light
southerly winds. An approaching cold front will result in higher
rain chances beginning Thursday, with winds and seas becoming more
chaotic in the vicinity of storms. As the front moves into the Gulf
Friday, high pressure will build in from the northwest resulting in
a period of offshore winds through the weekend. Outside of
thunderstorms, no marine hazards expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  89  70  82 /  10  60  70  70
BTR  74  90  73  84 /  10  70  70  70
ASD  72  90  72  84 /   0  50  50  80
MSY  76  92  75  87 /   0  40  40  80
GPT  74  89  74  86 /   0  40  40  80
PQL  71  90  73  87 /   0  20  30  80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion