Hazel, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

866
FXUS63 KABR 150835
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
335 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures (by around 5 to 10 degrees) will
continue through Tuesday.
- 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight over central SD
moving to south central SD during the day Tuesday. No severe weather
is expected at this time.
- Additional precipitation chances (30-60 percent) return Tuesday
night through Friday. The lower chances of precipitation can be
expected over north central SD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Slightly lower dewpoints and increased winds out of a southerly
direction has limited fog development so far this morning. If fog
does develop near daybreak, it would be most likely over portions of
north central SD that are already under a low stratus deck.
The 08Z surface weather map shows the low over far northwestern ND
into southern Canada. The low will continue to exit into Manitoba
through the day. An additional low was located over southern
Alberta/southwestern Saskatchewan through eastern MT and the Black
Hills. We`ve started our brief break from severe weather and SPC
marginal risks that have been so steady over the last several days.
There have been slight or marginal risks over the ABR forecast area
in the SPC day 1 outlook since the 11th, with the last day without
general thunderstorms being on the 5th and 6th.
A low developing over the Black Hills will shift over central
SD by 03Z Tuesday and remain over central SD through midday Tuesday
before sinking to southeastern SD and southern MN by 21Z Tuesday.
The chances of precipitation have been increased over central, and
mainly north central SD tonight to account for the increased
moisture as this surface low and enhanced southwesterly flow aloft
as the next 500mb trough rotates in from ID/MT/WY. The CAMs back up
the need for higher chances for precipitation. A 30-45kt low level
jet will also help keep chances for showers or thunderstorms. The
coverage and intensity of precipitation should wane by daybreak
Tuesday, when the focus shifts to south central SD for a 15-30%
chance of precipitation into the afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms chances will increase late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening, particularly over our south central SD counties
(50% chance of precipitation). Confidence is lower over north
central to northeastern SD/west central MN as the surface trough
remains in place across southeastern SD. Plenty of low level
moisture will be overhead. The trough will be reinforced Wednesday
night, forming a low that will pivot over northeastern SD/west
central MN Friday afternoon through at least 18Z Saturday before
shifting across MN.
Dewpoints will still be in the 60s, and minimum relative humidity
both Wednesday and Thursday can be expected to stay above 70%. The
Day 3 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for 12Z Wednesday to 12Z
Thursday includes portions of our eastern/southeastern counties in a
Marginal risk are (at least 5% chance of rainfall exceeding flash
flood guidance within 25 miles of a point). The probability of 0.5"
of rain Wednesday morning through Friday night is lowest over our
north western counties (Corson County) around 50% and around 80%
over east central SD.
Brief surface ridging will take over late Saturday afternoon through
Sunday, with chances of precipitation 15% or less Saturday night
through Monday. After highs mainly in the 80s, temperatures will
mainly top out in the upper 60s and 70s Wednesday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs are expected at KMBG heading into Monday
morning. KPIR/KABR/KATY, for now, are expected to hang on to a
predominantly VFR forecast, with perhaps less of a chance of fog by
morning. There is the potential for showers, and perhaps a few
thunderstorms, overnight into Monday morning, mainly at KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...10

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion