Harleston, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

482
FXUS64 KLIX 300442
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast through midweek with hot afternoons and
   comfortable low temperatures.
- Rain and storm chances slowly increase at the back end of the
   workweek and into the weekend.
- Winds and seas will increase late this week and weekend leading
   to Cautionary Headlines or Small Craft Advisories likely and
   minor coastal flooding possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Overall, the synoptic pattern is rather weak today with only
slight upper level ridging over the CWFA. The area resides in a
slight weakness between a developing ridge over the northern MS
River Valley and a weak ridge over the western Gulf. That said,
thicknesses and heights are elevated a bit, which will again prove
to provide a source for strong surface warming. Like the last few
days, strong surface heating will cause dewpoints to mix downward
this afternoon, however, as we seen this afternoon behind the
sea/lake breeze, the dewpoints rebounded right before sunset
making it feel a bit more humid. That said, going into this
afternoon and Wednesday there is just enough low level moisture
associated with these mesoscale boundaries where a nonzero shower
potential may be possible. For now left any mention of precip out
because we need just enough moisture return to have at least a
silent 10 out there. Wednesday looks to be a bit better with
easterly or just slightly south of due easterly flow tries to
develop help gradually increase low level moisture quality right
along the immediate coast. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Going into the long term the synoptic pattern wakes up a bit, if
you will. An upper level weakness extending westward cross the
western Atlantic and into the north central Gulf will begin to
close off into an upper level low by the start of the long term
period. At the surface, a bit stronger easterly flow begins to
develop over the region. From this point rain chances south of
I10/12 start to rise little by little with some modest low level
moisture doing what it can to move back into the region from the
east.
The upper level low parks itself over the southeast going into the
upcoming weekend. At the surface a weak stalled frontal boundary
will reside over the central Gulf Coast. Temperatures later this
week will likely cool a bit to around average or perhaps just a
skosh below? Lower to middle 80s will be possible. However,
overnight lows no change - still around average. The cooler
daytime highs can mostly be contributed to the upper level low
(cold core...which will mean something in just a moment as we get
further into the weekend). Additionally, the cloudiness and some
rainfall will also do it`s part in keeping the region a bit cooler
than we have seen earlier in the week and last weekend.
Further, the GFS is trying to develop some surface feature over
our waters. While simply looking at the pressure field it could
seem a bit more intimidating. However, taking a look at H200 the
region will be under a cold core upper level low meaning it likely
will NOT be a tropical entity. Maybe a hybrid if anything even
forms at all. The other globals have an inverted trough and
residual troughing along the weak stalled front, however, at this
juncture the GFS is the outlier. Even the ensembles aren`t exactly
happy with the operational GFS runs as of late. Regardless, the
feature is absorbed by the more dominate upper level low on Sunday.
Needless to say, low confidence, but there certainly could be
some rain and storms around. Again, as the cold core low sits up
over our region there will be a need to pay attention to the
updraft strength because the signal for small hail at least will
be there. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR VIS/CIG for all terminals through the forecast cycle. Winds
will continue to remain light or generally less than 10 knots and
variable. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Generally offshore flow will continue across the local waters
through midweek or so. Convection and rain chances will gradually
increase from midweek through the end of the forecast period.
Moderate easterly flow develops by Thursday and will likely continue
and perhaps even further strengthen through the weekend. Small Craft
Advisories for both winds and seas are looking increasingly likely
by late this week and into the weekend. Additionally, expect a bit
higher seas and winds in and around convection. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  92  69  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  91  66  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  92  74  90  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  90  69  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  91  66  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion