Harding, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

641
FXUS63 KSGF 061837
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will return by the middle of next
  week. Rain chances remain less than 10 percent through the end
  of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows northwest flow aloft across the area with a
deep trough over the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure was
building into the area from the northwest with clear skies and
light and variable winds. This was resulting in the airmass
mixing in drier air with RH`s in the 30-40% range as dews have
dropped into the low 40s and temps in the low 70s.
Through Tonight: Surface high pressure will continue building
into the area. Clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass will
allow for strong radiational cooling with lows dropping off
quickly after sunset. General consensus is for overnight lows to
fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Locations east of
Springfield, especially the valleys and wind protected areas
could see lows drop into the lower 40s. The drier air moving in
should largely preclude fog development.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Sunday through Tuesday: Surface high pressure moving through on
Sunday will again create another dry and comfortable day with
highs in the 70s to near 80. Sunday night we may see a decent
gradient of low temps as winds attempt to turn southerly out
west. This would cause lows staying closer to the low 50s west
of Springfield with low to mid 40s east of Springfield.
Ensembles suggest that a weak, low amplitude shortwave will move
through Monday into Tuesday. This could bring a few more clouds
to the area however given the dry airmass in place, no precip is
expected. The lone exception is southeast Kansas where enough
moisture may be present for sprinkles however chances remain
quite low over there even. Warmer air aloft will spread in as
well with highs in the lower 80s likely both days.
Wednesday through Friday: Ensembles are in good agreement that
an upper level ridge will build into most of the central US.
This looks to push mean 850mb temps into the 16-18C range
Wednesday and then 18-20C range for the end of the week. These
kind of 850mb temps are in the 75th-90th percentile for the time
of year which would equate to median high temps into the low to
middle 90s depending on cloud cover (based on conditional
climatology studies). NBM temp spreads are small which leads to
high confidence in above normal temps for mid to late week.
Precip chances also look to remain very low (less than 10
percent).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Surface winds will largely remain light and variable this
afternoon however a slightly easterly component will occur for
a few hours before becoming northwesterly by evening. Wind
speeds will remain generally less than 8kts. Clear skies will
remain through the TAF period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion