Happy, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS64 KLUB 021105
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the
   weekend, with highs at least 10 degrees above seasonal
   normals.
- A pattern change is possible early next week, which may bring
   slight cooler weather and increased rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Well above seasonal normal temperatures continue Thursday. The upper
ridging has built over the region and will remain overhead through
Thursday at the same time as upper troughing swings onto the CONUS
just off the coast of California. Height and thicknesses will
slightly increase Thursday keeping high temperatures ~10 degrees
above seasonal normal with much of the region will experience highs
in the 90s. To start the day, winds will be light and from the
southwest, however will shift to the south during the late afternoon
hours in response to the development of a lee side low over
Colorado. Some models indicate the possibility for high base
convection developing mainly off the Caprock early this morning and
then again later this afternoon and evening. If these high base
storms do develop, measurable rain is not expected and will most
likely be virga showers. Otherwise, conditions are expected to
remain dry Thursday. Thursday night will be quiet with mostly clear
skies. Similar to the highs for Thursday, low temperatures will be
~10 degrees warmer than seasonal normal in the upper 50s to lower
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Upper ridging will remain above the region Friday as upper troughing
swings over western CONUS, however as the trough continues to
approach the region, the upper ridging will flatten. Heights and
thicknesses will gradually decrease as the trough approaches the
region effectively cooling temperatures. However, temperatures will
remain ~5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail
through early next week as the upper trough becomes positively
tilted over the Intermountain West. Seasonal normal temperatures and
precipitation chances could return Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold
front is progged to track southward through the region. However,
timing and how far south the front treks is uncertain at the moment,
therefore NBM temperatures and PoPs were left as is.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion