Hammond Crossroads, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

393
FXUS62 KCAE 261809
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
209 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms today as a cold front approaches
the area, with potential for locally heavy rain. The rain
chances persist into the weekend and early next week with lower
temperatures. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are possible
early next week as we monitor tropical development.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Slow moving trough and front will bring widespread shower-storms
this evening.
A digging upper level trough and associated synoptic scale forcing
will help drive some widespread showers-storms later this afternoon
and evening. A plume of high PWAT`s remains over the region
downstream of this trough axis, pushing over 2.0" across the CSRA
and southern Midlands this afternoon. Stratus will steadily thin out
this afternoon and allow some modest heating and instability to
develop after 4-5pm. The HREF guidance, which has initialized
and is handling the environment decently, shows more widespread
convection mainly focused just west of and along the I-95
corridor this evening. Given typical footprint errors, heavy
rain remains possible this afternoon and evening for much of the
Midlands and CSRA with spots of over 2.0" likely; isolated
flash flooding is possible throughout the late afternoon and
this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon
An upper level trough will swing into the Southeast into the
short term and become negatively tilted. The forecast area will
be under the upper jet streak allowing for synoptic scale lift
over the region. PWAT values will be around 2 inches across the
eastern FA with slightly drier air to the west. As a surface
front slowly moves into the forecast area it will be the focus
for convective development as the air mass destabilizes in the
afternoon. Synoptic support and PWAT values 140 to 160 percent
of normal favors widespread convection and the potential for
localized flash flooding. The threat of heavy rain is greatest
in the eastern half of SC where moisture is deepest. Although
any training of convective cells in the forecast area could
contribute to flash flooding in localized areas. Rain chances
will likely diminish by Saturday night as the initial trough
axis moves to our northeast along with the deeper moisture. This
will lead to diminishing rain chances into Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Potential for heavy rain, strong winds next week
A low pressure system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas. Gradual development of this
system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or so while it moves
northwestward or northward across the central and northwestern
Bahamas.
The weather for the forecast area in the long term will be
largely dependent on the eventual track and intensity of this
system. Without getting into the complexity of the forecast, the
biggest concern is the potential for heavy rain and flash
flooding across the forecast area from late this weekend into
next week. Strong winds will also be possible but this threat is
even more closely tied to the track of this system. At this
point, people should continue to monitor the forecast over the
weekend so that they remain up to date on the potential
hazardous weather.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread showers and storms likely this evening, stratus likely
Saturday morning.
An approaching front and trough will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the TAF sites this evening. While they should
remain periodic and scattered, a tempo should be sufficient to cover
the expected timing with TSRA tempo from 21-01z for all sites.
Typical vsby and cig restrictions expected during these showers-
storms with some gusty winds as well. Lingering scattered showers
are expected overnight into Saturday morning, with lowering stratus.
IFR-LIFR stratus is possible Saturday morning after 10z, lasting
into to around 13-14z. Winds, outside of storms Friday evening, will
remain fairly light and generally variable as the front-trough
approach.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in
place this weekend leading to likely rain chances and possible
widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion