Half Way, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

421
FXUS63 KSGF 211127
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across the area
  at times through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning
  will be the main risk. Where multiple storms are able to track
  over the same locations localized flooding will be the primary
  risk.
- Seasonal temperatures and additional rain chances will occur
  at times through the coming week as several upper level
  disturbances move through the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A mid and upper level short wave aided by a 30 to 35kt low
level jet helped a storm system move through portions of
southern Missouri early this morning. Where storms initially
developed and moved over the same areas, from 2 to 4 inches of
rain fell. Showers and storms are expected to continue across
portions of south central Missouri before starting to dissipate
by mid to late morning.
Additional storms are then expected to develop around mid
afternoon, with a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk in place into the
evening hours as a lingering MCV moves across the region. While
shear will only be around 20-25kts due to relatively weak flow,
the MCV may be able to provide enough help for a few of strong
to locally severe storms to develop with wind gusts up to 60 mph
and hail quarters in size. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
a risk with the storms today but as noted in the Day 1 Excessive
Rainfall Outlook.
A rather strong LLJ of 55-65kts, as noted on the NAM/RAP, is
expected to nose into far southwestern Missouri around sunrise
Monday morning. This amount of forcing along with some
isentropic upglide and decent CAPE, 1200-1600j/kg will provide
the potential for strong to severe storms to be ongoing to start
the day Monday. Forecast soundings show tall, skinny CAPE which
would suggest more of a hail threat with the strongest storms.
Highs will warm into the upper 70s to the middle 80s again today
and to around 80 on Monday, with lows in the middle 60s
tonight and Monday night. Outside thunderstorms, winds will
generally be out of the south to southwest today.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An active weather pattern is in the offing for the Ozarks this
coming week as several upper level troughs move through the
region. This will bring dally shower and thunderstorm chances
to the area with the passage of each trough.
The another wave is expected to slide across the plains Monday
night into Tuesday, some lingering scattered storms will be
possible during the day Monday. A Marginal Risk (1 out of 5), is
in place across the western portions of the Ozarks, mainly west
of Highway 65. A complex of storms could develop across the
plains and track southeast into portions of the area late Monday
into early Tuesday. Some gusty winds could be possible if any
line segments can develop within this activity and can track
into the area. With what may be slow moving storms Monday night
into Tuesday morning as a trough move across the area and good
southwesterly surface flow, training storms may become an issue.
With portions of the Ozarks seeing 2-4 inches of rain this
morning, this may have primed local areas, despite the ongoing
D2 drought in parts of the area, to produce localized flooding.
The WPC has all of the are in a Slight ERO Risk (2 out of 4) as
a result.
The troughs will also bring seasonable temperatures to the area
next week as highs the ensemble model members are in fairly
good agreement of highs the middle 70s to the lower 80s. There
will be breaks in the rain and some days the rain may be more
scattered in nature. Models are in fairly good agreement with
the trough and systems early in the week but do start to differ
some on the timing and track of the troughs mid to late in the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A low level jet will move northeast across the region today
with the potential for additional occasional showers and
storms. Dry conditions are expected to be the primary weather
but with the moisture in place across the region and mid level
energy, a there will be a chance for additional showers and
storms through the day and the remainder of the forecast
period.
Surface winds will be light and generally southwesterly from
5-10mph except in and around storms where winds will be more
erratic.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion