Gulf Hammock, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

347
FXUS62 KTBW 212357
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
757 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Recent radar imagery shows a few very light echoes drifting
quickly westward across portions of the Nature Coast and southern
offshore waters but otherwise it`s dry elsewhere across the
forecast area this evening. Meanwhile, there is a minor signal of
patchy fog overnight in northern portions of the TBW CWA with
latest HREF probabilities of visibilities less than a half mile
around 10%-20%, though an increase in mid/high level cloud cover
keeps forecast confidence on the low side. That said, decided to
add a mention of patchy fog to the forecast overnight for northern
portions of the area based on recent trends but otherwise no
updates are needed this evening with lows dropping into the upper
60s to mid 70s as deep moisture still is expected to increase from
south to north into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Drier air continues across the area today, with PWats of 1.4
inches. A few showers/storms possible later this afternoon
mainly across the south. Moisture overspreads the area tomorrow
and Tuesday, with some upper shortwave energy moving over the
peninsula. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
storms with the highest chances south. As this feature shifts off
to the east, a little more dry air moves across the area, but only
cuts Pops 10-20 percent remaining generally in the scattered
range. Moisture returns for the end of the week as a cold front
approaches and then settles and stalls across the area by
Saturday.
Highs remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the week, then
lower a bit for Saturday to near 90 as more clouds and some rain
are in place with the stalling front. Lows around 70 north to
the mid 70s near the coast generally through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout most of the forecast
period but scattered TSRA will be possible at times on Monday
afternoon and evening, mainly after 18Z. Thus, this may result in
occasional flight restrictions, particularly during periods of
heavier precipitation. Otherwise, winds will be out of the NE
throughout most of the period at around 5-10 kts, though a shift
to the NNW may occur by late afternoon on Monday at coastal sites
as a sea breeze develops.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Winds continue from the NE/E through mid-week AOB 15 knots. Winds
then become light with weak ridging over the Gulf and then the
approaching front by the end of the week. Very low rain chances
today, but then scattered to numerous chances for the rest of the
period as moisture returns.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Moisture increases for Monday and Tuesday as some upper shortwave
energy moves over the peninsula allowing for scattered to numerous
showers and storms across the area. No concerns, except for
occasional lightning and some gusty winds near storms, as RH
values remain well above critical levels, and dispersions remain
fair to good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  77  90 /   0  30  20  50
FMY  75  90  75  90 /  10  70  40  70
GIF  74  92  75  92 /   0  40  20  60
SRQ  74  91  75  89 /  10  40  30  50
BKV  69  92  72  91 /   0  20  10  50
SPG  76  89  77  88 /   0  30  20  50
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion