Guagolotes, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

770
FXUS65 KABQ 112039
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
239 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 222 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- There will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over
  western areas this afternoon and evening, another over central
  and western areas Friday afternoon and evening, then along and
  east of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and
  evening.
- Heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will create flash
  flooding concerns. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms on Friday
  and Saturday may create accumulations up to 2 inches for parts
  of central and northern New Mexico, creating fast rises in
  streams and arroyos.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
A trough digging into the Great Basin will approach New Mexico over
the next few days, while the upper level high sinks further east
into central Texas. A series of shortwave disturbances embedded
within the leading edge of this trough will be the catalyst for
numerous thunderstorms and showers on Friday afternoon and
evening. This afternoon, scattered to numerous storms are favored
mainly along the Continental Divide and north of I-40, including
the Four Corners region. There is a marginal risk of severe
weather this afternoon for the Northwest Plateau, including
Farmington and the Four Corners. With stronger flow aloft, there
should be plenty of bulk shear (at 35 to 50 kts) to support strong
thunderstorms. Modest instability of about 1500 J/kg should be
plenty to get storms off the ground along and west of the
Continental Divide, with higher chances of strong to severe wind
gusts near the Colorado border. Model soundings are showing strong
inverted-V profiles with about 1100 J/kg of DCAPE, indicating
that strong downburst wind gusts may be possible with sub-severe
storms farther south and east near Gallup and Grants. Storm
activity should subside as daytime heating diminishes after
sunset, but scattered showers could persist through the evening
and late night hours, particularly near Farmington.
A surge in moisture over New Mexico will allow for more widespread
activity on Friday, once again beginning along the Continental
Divide, but this time spreading east towards the central mountain
chain. Precipitable water content looks to climb up to around 1.1
inches, within the 90th percentile for this time of year and about
150% above normal. As a result there is an increased concern for
flash flooding impacts over a large swath of central and north-
central New Mexico. In addition to a slight risk of excessive
rainfall from WPC, have opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch for
northwest, west-central, central, and north-central areas for
Friday afternoon and evening. A passing shortwave aloft will serve
as the main forcing for multiple rounds of training thunderstorms
to dump heavy rainfall over the same areas. One of the most
concerning areas during the middle and late afternoon will be
central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro
areas. Storms look to persist late into the evening hours as
well, particularly along the middle Rio Grande Valley and along
the central mountain chain. Despite the fast moving nature of many
of these storms (10 to 20 mph towards the NE), accumulations
could climb up to 2 inches over areas where multiple storms have
tracked. There is also a marginal risk of severe weather for areas
along and west of the Continental Divide, where there will once
again be plenty of bulk shear to support stronger thunderstorms.
The thunderstorm threat in western New Mexico should diminish by
the early evening hours as most activity shifts towards the east.
It looks to be a wet night for many New Mexicans on Friday,
particularly along north-central New Mexico and over the HPCC burn
scar, where rapid rises in streams and rivers may create
hazardous low water crossings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
By the time Saturday morning rolls around, it may still be raining
in areas along and adjacent to the central mountain chain, including
Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Southern areas including the Sacramento
mountains will also be getting in on some of the action, although
there is still some uncertainty regarding storm coverage and
intensity for areas south of I-40. Rainfall rates may be too light
and storm motions may be too quick to create burn scar flash
flooding for Ruidoso, but given the higher confidence in showers and
prolonged rainfall, another watch may be necessary for this area on
Saturday. The main upper level trough axis will be pushing through
central Rockies during the afternoon, pushing a Pacific cold front
through western New Mexico. A drier and more stable airmass will
keep storm chances lower for western areas, but more storms are
likely ahead of the front, along and east of the central mountain
chain. SPC has put out a marginal risk of severe weather for
nearly all of the eastern half of New Mexico during the afternoon
and evening on Saturday. A strong line of thunderstorms may
develop and produce damaging wind gusts and large hail as the
system moves into Texas overnight. Locally heavy rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches per hour will create a slight risk of flooding for
many areas, with an increased risk for the sensitive burn scars.
Drier and stable conditions in the wake of the cold front should
allow for some pleasant and quite weather on Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will also drop 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year, with Angel Fire looking to hard freeze on Sunday
night. Slight ridging will develop ahead of another digging trough
over the Pacific Northwest early in the week, allowing for some
moist southerly flow to work its way back into southern New Mexico.
As a result, storm chances begin to increase for the southern high
terrain on Monday and then most of central New Mexico on Tuesday.
The strength of the next trough is still uncertain, but it looks
to once again bring some drier westerly flow, diminishing storm
chances for the middle to end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for all sites throughout the
period. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are developing along the
Continental Divide and north-central New Mexico, looking to create
gusty and erratic winds for KFMN, KGUP, KSAF, and KRTN through the
middle of the afternoon. KFMN may continue to see light showers
throughout the evening and into the late morning hours. Brisk
southerly winds are expected to persist at KTCC and KROW through the
evening. Scattered to broken mid and upper level clouds will cover
much of central and western New Mexico throughout the evening as
well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds are forecast
throughout much of the area today. Thunderstorms will focus mainly
along the Continental Divide this afternoon, where storms will
produce frequent lightning and gusty and erratic winds. Increased
moisture on Friday will create greater coverage for scattered to
numerous thunderstorms to develop along and east of the Continental
Divide. Multiple rounds of storms will produce heavy wetting
rainfall, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum. A Pacific
cold front will push through the region on Saturday, drying out the
environment and bringing minimum humidity values down to the teens
for Sunday and Monday. Greater moisture returns towards the middle of
the week for southern  and central areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  74  55  74 /  60  80  60  40
Dulce...........................  48  70  45  69 /  70  80  90  70
Cuba............................  53  74  50  68 /  50  80  90  70
Gallup..........................  52  74  47  73 /  50  70  50  30
El Morro........................  53  73  48  71 /  60  80  80  50
Grants..........................  53  75  50  74 /  50  90  80  60
Quemado.........................  53  76  49  73 /  40  70  70  40
Magdalena.......................  58  78  55  71 /  20  60  90  80
Datil...........................  52  74  49  71 /  20  70  80  70
Reserve.........................  52  81  50  77 /  30  50  70  40
Glenwood........................  57  84  54  79 /  30  50  70  40
Chama...........................  47  66  43  64 /  70  80  90  80
Los Alamos......................  57  75  54  67 /  30  60  90  80
Pecos...........................  52  78  51  70 /  20  40  90  80
Cerro/Questa....................  51  73  49  66 /  30  50  80  60
Red River.......................  41  67  41  60 /  30  50  80  70
Angel Fire......................  37  69  39  63 /  20  40  80  70
Taos............................  52  76  49  69 /  30  40  80  60
Mora............................  48  73  48  68 /  20  40  80  80
Espanola........................  55  82  55  73 /  20  50  90  70
Santa Fe........................  57  77  55  68 /  20  50  90  70
Santa Fe Airport................  55  80  54  71 /  20  40  90  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  83  61  74 /  20  50  90  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  85  60  76 /  20  50  90  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  87  59  78 /  20  50  90  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  85  60  76 /  20  50  90  70
Belen...........................  61  87  58  78 /  20  40  90  70
Bernalillo......................  61  85  59  77 /  20  50  90  70
Bosque Farms....................  58  86  57  77 /  20  50  90  70
Corrales........................  61  86  60  77 /  20  50  90  70
Los Lunas.......................  60  86  58  77 /  20  40  90  70
Placitas........................  59  82  58  74 /  20  50  90  70
Rio Rancho......................  63  84  59  76 /  20  50  90  70
Socorro.........................  63  87  61  79 /  20  40  90  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  78  53  71 /  20  50  90  80
Tijeras.........................  59  80  54  71 /  20  50  90  80
Edgewood........................  54  80  52  74 /  20  40  90  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  81  52  75 /  20  40  90  80
Clines Corners..................  53  77  53  69 /  10  30  80  80
Mountainair.....................  55  81  53  74 /  20  40  80  90
Gran Quivira....................  54  80  54  73 /  10  30  80  90
Carrizozo.......................  59  82  58  75 /   5  20  60  80
Ruidoso.........................  51  76  55  70 /  10  30  50  90
Capulin.........................  51  77  53  70 /  10  10  50  60
Raton...........................  51  79  52  73 /  10  20  60  60
Springer........................  53  82  55  75 /  10  20  60  60
Las Vegas.......................  52  77  52  70 /  10  30  80  80
Clayton.........................  60  85  61  75 /   0   0  20  50
Roy.............................  57  81  56  72 /   0  10  50  70
Conchas.........................  61  87  61  77 /   0   5  40  70
Santa Rosa......................  59  84  59  74 /   0  10  50  80
Tucumcari.......................  59  86  60  76 /   0   0  20  70
Clovis..........................  60  88  63  82 /   0   0  10  70
Portales........................  60  88  63  82 /   0   0  10  70
Fort Sumner.....................  60  87  63  79 /   0   0  30  80
Roswell.........................  62  90  66  84 /   0   0  20  70
Picacho.........................  57  85  60  79 /   0  10  30  80
Elk.............................  54  80  56  78 /   0  20  30  80
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
NMZ201-203-204-206-207-210>219-221.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion