Guadalupe, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

625
FXUS64 KCRP 221115
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
615 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Low chance (20-40%) of showers today through Tuesday, increasing
  to medium chances (30-60%) Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
No significant chances were made to the previous forecast. Low (20-
40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue today and
Tuesday, mainly in the afternoons. Models are in slightly better
agreement regarding the boundary (dare I say cold front?)
approaching South Texas by the middle of the week. Moisture will
pool ahead of the boundary, increasing rain chances to medium (30-
60%) by Wednesday. NBM currently has the winds shifting to the
north/northeast Wednesday night then continuing into Friday night.
This seems fairly reasonable, so have not edited anything too much
though I did blend in a touch of the NAM to account for this
boundary/front (90NBM/10NAM) with both the winds and the PoPs. It is
very likely that things will need to be adjusted as this feature
gets closer.
Temperatures will actually cool noticeably for parts of South
Texas behind the "cold" front, with highs across the Brush Country
dropping from near 100 to the low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions can be expected through mid
morning, but overall VFR conditions will prevail through much of
the TAF period. A few showers are approaching the coastline this
morning and are expected to move inland through the morning hours.
There is a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, mainly later this morning
through the afternoon. Have kept a PROB30 for ALI, CRP and VCT.
If convection moves across a TAF site, it should be brief with
minimal aviation impacts. Rain chances decrease this evening and
overnight. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible once again early
Tuesday morning due to low cloud bases and/or patchy fog, mainly
ALI and VCT.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will continue through
the middle of the week. A frontal boundary is expected to move
through the area by Thursday, switching winds to a more northerly
flow before winds return to a southeasterly flow for the upcoming
weekend. There is a low to medium (30-60%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  78  93  78 /  30   0  30  10
Victoria          93  74  95  75 /  40   0  30  10
Laredo           100  77 101  78 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             97  75  97  75 /  20   0  20   0
Rockport          91  80  92  80 /  30  10  30  10
Cotulla           99  76 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        94  75  95  76 /  30   0  30   0
Navy Corpus       89  82  90  82 /  30  10  30  20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion