Grindstone, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

245
FXUS64 KFWD 291044
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thick high cloud cover will continue to spread across the region
  today. No precipitation is expected.
- Quiet weather will continue through next weekend with near to
  slightly above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025/
/Overnight through Monday Night/
A period of quiet weather will continue to start out the work week
but water vapor imagery shows an upstream trough that will
eventually spread into West Texas later today. This upper trough
will be accompanied by fairly strong mid level forcing for ascent
as it overspreads North Texas this evening. We`ll see another
round of thick high cloud cover across the region today with skies
becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon and evening which should
hold temperatures down a few degrees. With ample mid and upper
level moisture and the amount of lift expected later this evening,
we`ll likely see some radar returns across parts of Central and
North Texas late today and tonight. This would normally be
concerning for the potential of high based convection, but a lack
of MUCAPE within the zone of ascent and a very dry sub cloud layer
should allow any precipitation to evaporate before reaching the
ground. Extensive cloud cover will keep overnight lows Monday
night up a few degrees with readings in the mid/upper 60s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025/
/Tuesday through Sunday/
The upper trough will continue to push eastward on Tuesday
allowing mid level ridging to nudge back into the Southern Plains
through the end of the week. This will keep things quiet across
North Texas with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s and
low 90s Wednesday through Saturday. A broad area of high pressure
over the eastern CONUS next weekend may allow a deeper southerly
flow to become established which would pull some Gulf moisture
northward into the region. While rain chances will remain near
zero this week, we`ll likely see some slight increase as we head
into next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through the period with a light east-northeast
flow continuing around 5 kt. High clouds will increase throughout
the day as a disturbance moves into the Southern Plains. There
could be some light precipitation that tries to develop mainly to
the west late this afternoon and evening, but most of this will
not make it to the ground. Otherwise, no significant aviation
concerns are expected.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  70  88  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                87  67  89  64  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               87  65  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              87  64  88  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            87  65  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              89  70  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             87  66  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           89  68  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              87  64  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       87  64  89  61  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion