Gridley, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

751
FXUS63 KTOP 091113
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms increase in coverage across
  eastern Kansas later this morning into early afternoon. While
  severe weather is not anticipated, locally heavy rainfall is
  possible.
- Highs warm above normal values in the low 90s Thursday through the
  weekend mostly dry conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Active upper air pattern observed on water vapor imagery this
morning as several short wave troughs are noted throughout the
central CONUS. Amid northwest aloft, an incoming wave over southern
NE enters northeast Kansas shortly before sunrise. A cluster of
associated thunderstorms is the focus for the short term forecast
this morning as latest CAMs vary on the coverage and extent of
precipitation as it tracks through eastern Kansas. The environment
is supportive of storms maintaining themselves given the steepening
mid level lapse rates and decent isentropic ascent through mid
morning. PWAT values increase to near 1.6 inches while deep moisture
transport enhances after 12Z, lending to the concern for locally
heavy rainfall with the convection. Fortunately compared to
yesterday, convection movement is more progressive as increasing
subsidence ends the rainfall in the afternoon. Severe hail or wind
threat is low with this activity as MUCAPE values are below 1000
J/KG and effective shear is generally around 30 kts.
Highs today will largely depend on duration of rainfall and cloud
cover. If showers linger longer into the afternoon, it may restrain
temps to the 70s whereas if storms exit by lunchtime, highs in the
low 80s are more likely.
An additional MCS forms off of the higher terrain this evening,
potentially impacting portions of central Kansas by sunrise
Wednesday morning. Slight pops seemed prudent given the varying
solutions of where convection forms and the southeastward track
trending more towards central/southern Kansas.
Upper ridge currently over the Intermountain West gradually shifts
into the central plains mid week onward. Cannot rule out scattered
showers and storms Wednesday night as an embedded wave rounds the
eastern edge of the ridge. Model solutions are varied on the
location of the ridge and subsequent lift extent for precipitation
so have opted for slight pops in north central Kansas. These may
need to be increased or adjusted as additional short term guidance
comes in.  Upper ridge becomes more dominant Thursday afternoon into
the weekend, ushering southerly warm advection and boosting highs to
the lower 90s. An expansive upper low deepening over the western
conus reintroduces precip chances and somewhat cooler temps by early
Sunday into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR at sites as a line of TSRA is very likely to impact
terminals from 12-16Z. Initial gust front veers south winds to
the northeast up to 28 kts, otherwise southerly winds prevail
throughout forecast period. Clouds scatter out behind the TSRA
with no impacts at terminals for the remainder of the period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion