Grayson, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

065
FXUS64 KSHV 201647
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1147 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend,
   accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures.
- Showers and storms will return Sunday afternoon to portions of
   the Four State Region.
- The work week ahead looks to be more unsettled, with daily chances
   for showers and storms and more mild temperatures across
   northern zones.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Our dry conditions today will continue through the overnight hours
tonight, allowing for temperatures to drop into the upper 60s to low
70s by. Recent rain and increased southerly flow has increased dew
points enough that some patchy fog could be possible across the
region, but winds should stay elevated enough to prevent widespread
impacts. The dry conditions bleed into Sunday morning before a more
disturbed weather pattern takes over late Sunday afternoon.
Southerly flow will continue promoting moisture transport from the
Gulf and allow for rain development in our southern zones from an
apparent sea breeze during the afternoon. At the same time, the
upper-level pattern above the region shifts to a northwestern flow
regime due to the dominant area of low pressure in the Northern
Plains. Some rain associated with this pattern could begin impacting
our northern zones as early as mid afternoon Sunday.
Previous forecast discussions have talked about model
discrepancies with another area of low pressure that looks to
take shape over Montana on Monday. Recent runs of the Euro have
seemed to align better with the consistent prediction of the GFS.
This is most notable in the low`s path towards Missouri over the
following days. There are still differences in the intensity and
speed between the models that will hopefully align better with
time.
Regardless of Wednesday`s happenings, our northwest flow regime
will bring daily rain chances for various areas this week. In
addition to some much needed rain, temperatures should come down
slightly and more closely represent average seasonal temperatures.
High temperatures could solidly land in the 80s by Thursday with
overnight lows in the 60s. Current forecast guidance has different
solutions for the end of the work week, but the current thinking
is that dry conditions will return by the weekend with more hot
temperatures on the docket.
/57/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
For the 20/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with some MVFR vis possible at KTXK/KELD/KMLU through 20/15Z
being the only exception. Light southerly surface winds (around 5
kts) will prevail through the period. /16/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  94  73  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLU  70  95  70  94 /   0  10  10  20
DEQ  66  90  68  89 /   0  20  20  40
TXK  70  94  71  93 /   0  20  20  30
ELD  67  93  68  91 /   0  10  10  20
TYR  69  90  70  91 /   0  20  10  20
GGG  69  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  20
LFK  69  91  70  92 /   0  40   0  20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion