Grant, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

314
FXUS64 KTSA 011722
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into next week.
- Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist toward the early to
    middle of next week but significant rainfall looks unlikely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Well above normal temperatures and plenty of sun in most places will
prevail this afternoon, with little in the way of impact weather.
That should continue into tonight, with signals for widespread
valley fog much lower than in previous nights. HREF probabilities
for visibilities under a mile are 5 percent or less through 7 am
tomorrow. As such, no fog mention will be included for late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Besides the aforementioned lack of fog in the forecast, the other
forecast challenge Thursday morning is the very low to low potential
for showers in the western fringes of mainly Osage and Pawnee
counties near to just after daybreak, resulting from a passing wave.
NBM probabilities for rainfall are under 5 percent, and this
forecast will feature a slight upward adjustment to 10 percent given
CAM output. If this signal persists, addition of mentionable POPs
may be necessary later today. Widely scattered thunderstorm
potential Thursday afternoon remains more likely to the east of the
forecast area, although both CAM and synoptic model output is enough
to keep the 20 percent chance advertised by the NBM across areas
just east of I-49 in the official forecast. Highs Thursday will
likely reach 90 degrees in several locations.
Toward the weekend, upper level ridging will build into the area,
bringing a multi-day stretch of dry weather and continued well above
normal temperatures. Highs will flirt with 90 degrees again in
favored locations in eastern Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley
on most days through at least Sunday and possibly into Monday.
The ridge looks to break down on the north to northwest side for the
early part of next week as upper level troughing in the west
approaches. With the southwesterly upper level jet positioned near
but still north and west of the area, only low shower and
thunderstorm chances mainly across northern parts of the area
currently look to result. An infusion of moisture from the south
into portions of Arkansas could also aid in low rain chances in the
east Conditions should be cooler by mid week, albeit still a bit
above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Patchy
fog may again develop near lakes and rivers in NW AR Thursday
morning, with some chance that a light east wind may temporarily
advect some over KROG around sunrise...likely to a lesser degree
that observed this morning. Expect an increase in mid clouds
across northeast OK early Thursday morning with a non-zero
chance of a light shower or two.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   66  90  65  90 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   62  90  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   58  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  87  59  86 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   61  85  62  85 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   64  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   61  88  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   61  89  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion