Gotebo, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

526
FXUS64 KOUN 081752
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
   evening, primarily across western Oklahoma.
- Mild weather continues today with above-normal temperatures
   likely by mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Thunderstorms have all but diminish across northwest/west central
Oklahoma this morning with convective debris clouds remaining. These
should gradually thin through the afternoon.
Elsewhere, low clouds across parts of the Texas Panhandle and
southwestern Oklahoma/western north Texas have scattered into more
of a Cu structure.  Convective-allowing models (CAMs) have trended
with less coverage of storms this afternoon and evening near
northwest/west central Oklahoma.  However, water vapor imagery shows
a well defined shortwave trough moving into northwestern Kansas with
some cloud enhancement ahead of the feature.  Lift associated with
the approaching disturbance and daytime heating should result in
at least isolated storms by late afternoon/early evening. Perhaps
a better chance of boundary-layer convection will develop across
the Panhandles within weak convergent flow. These storms should
take a while to enter western Oklahoma. If showers/storms form
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon they should be more
elevated.
With the effective shear around 35+ knots, and CAPE (1500-200 J/kg)
this will support strong to severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds.
A low-level jet is expected to develop by late evening/overnight.
The stronger winds tonight should be positioned farther east than
last night and more veered.  Although the mid-level winds will
remain weak and not as westerly, isolated/widely scattered elevated
showers and storms are possible.  This may occur over parts of north
central/central Oklahoma.  It also appears a much better setup for
organized convection will be to our north in parts of Kansas.
However, models are not handling the ongoing convection in central
Kansas very well. Given the veered jet and northwest flow, some
of this activity may try and build into north central Oklahoma
during the morning. There are also indications that a weak
disturbance may approach western Oklahoma late tonight into early
Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Isolated showers and storms may be ongoing across mainly north
central/central/far western Oklahoma early Tuesday morning.  If
another organized area of convection develops in Kansas will need to
see if this activity may develop over or move into north central
Oklahoma during the morning/early afternoon.  Although the pattern
will become unfavorable for storms by late Wednesday/Thursday
(upper ridge builds over the southern Plains), another weak
disturbance will result in low chances of storms Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. These storms should mainly occur across
western/northern Oklahoma.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The mid-level ridge is forecast to remain entrenched across the
Southern Plains through at least Saturday, which will likely
result in continued above-normal temperatures and minimal rain
chances.
The probabilistic temperature forecast (derived from an ensemble
of bias-corrected models) indicates a very high chance of above-
normal temperatures given even the 10th percentile (the colder
end of guidance) has slightly above-normal temperatures Thursday
through Saturday. High temperatures will likely range from the
upper 80s to mid 90s deg F.
By late Saturday into Sunday, the mid-level ridge may weaken as a
trough lifts into the Plains. As a result, there is at least a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms the second half of the
weekend.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow. There is
a low chance for thunderstorms this evening across northwest
Oklahoma but chances were too low to include at KWWR at this time.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the rest of the area
with southeasterly winds becoming more southerly by Tuesday
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  85  64  88 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK         63  91  65  94 /  10  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  89  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           61  89  64  90 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     60  85  63  87 /  20  20  10  10
Durant OK         57  85  60  89 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion