Goldsmith, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

226
FXUS64 KMAF 291138
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  across the area today, with the best chance (30-40 percent) over
  the higher terrain areas and down into the Marfa Plateau,
  Presidio Valley, and Big Bend region.
- Warmer temperatures and dry weather conditions return Tuesday
  through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb height analysis shows an upper
level trough lifting toward the Four Corners early this morning.
Abundant mid and upper level moisture continues to stream across
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico within the southwesterly
flow pattern aloft in advance of this feature. Scattered to
numerous rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms made it as
far east as the Trans Pecos region Sunday evening before quickly
diminishing during the late evening hours. The Flood Watch that
was in effect from Eddy county down into the Davis Mountains/Marfa
Plateau region was discontinued as of 10 PM CDT / 9 PM MDT as
heavy rains had ended. A few light rain showers will remain
possible over areas mainly west of the Pecos River through sunrise
given weak ascent within the southwesterly flow pattern aloft and
the abundant moisture in place.
The upper-level trough will slowly lift toward the Rocky Mountains
and adjacent plains of New Mexico and west Texas today, before
gradually moving to our east tonight into Tuesday morning.
Abundant mid and high level cloud cover will continue to spread
across our forecast area ahead of this feature and will keep
skies cloudy across much of our region through the afternoon. The
combination of the available moisture and continued weak ascent
within the southwesterly flow pattern aloft along and ahead of the
approaching trough may allow for the development of isolated to
scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two again today.
We will keep 20-40% POPs generally oriented across areas west of
the Pecos River today. There has been a trend in CAMs with
showing at least isolated showers potentially developing as far
east as the Permian Basin this afternoon, but the chance of
measurable rain looks to be less than 20%. The thick cloud cover
will limit heating today, so highs are only expected to reach into
the mid 70s to lower 80s across most of the forecast area, except
slightly warmer in the upper 80s to lower 90s along the Rio
Grande. Rain chances will quickly diminish by early this evening
as the upper-level trough starts getting a push to our east.
Clouds should decrease through the evening and overnight hours.
Low temperatures should range in the mid 50s to mid 60s across
most of the area.
The upper-level trough continues to move to the east across
Oklahoma and eastern portions of Texas on Tuesday while ridging
aloft starts to build into west Texas and southeast New Mexico
behind this departing feature. Mostly sunny skies and dry
conditions will return to our area on Tuesday with highs reaching
into the 80s for most places (except lower to mid 90s along the
Rio Grande).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Upper-level ridging will continue to amplify across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico through the middle to latter part of the
week. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will prevail with POPs
staying nil through Friday. The ridging pattern may shift to our
east and become replaced with southwesterly flow aloft next
weekend ahead of a series of upper-level troughs that are forecast
to deepen over the western U.S. There will be little in the way of
meaningful moisture that will be in place over our area, so dry
conditions are forecast to continue through the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures will be warming back up into the upper 80s to
lower 90s over most of the area Wednesday-Friday underneath the
ridging pattern aloft. Highs may tick down a degree or two by next
weekend, but still quite warm in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
most. Overnight lows will generally range in the lower to mid 60s
over most of the area, except for readings in the 50s over higher
elevation areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will remain prevalent across the region underneath
broken-overcast mid and high level cloud decks streaming overhead.
A few very light showers will develop across the area through the
early morning hours with another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing through this afternoon.
Confidence of impact remains too low to include convective
mention at any terminal. Winds will generally become southeasterly
to easterly at 5-10 knots today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  58  87  61 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 79  57  85  59 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   84  61  89  63 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            82  59  87  62 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  56  76  59 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                    78  55  84  58 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    75  50  80  52 /  40   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     81  59  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   80  60  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     80  58  86  59 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion