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Goffstown, New Hampshire Weather Forecast Discussion

293
FXUS61 KGYX 221847
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 247 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift east tonight and bring a return of southwest winds Tuesday. That will allow temperatures to soar once more, pushing 80 degrees in spots. As a cold front approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday the best chance of rain showers will also arrive in the area. Especially across southern parts of the forecast area nearly a quarter inch of rain on average is possible. Another chance of rain is possible Thursday as well, with similar potential rainfall totals. We will take any rain we can get.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Full sun continues this afternoon with southerly breeze. Winds will tend to subside this evening, but light mixing will keep a light wind going much of the night, especially along the coast.

Another round of fog is expected over the lower Kennebec Valley overnight, becoming more patchy to the south and west. The combination of more clouds and light low level mixing will create a fairly mild night, especially compared to the previous few as lows only bottom in the lower 50s.

Showers now located over Lake Ontario will slowly drift east tonight, eventually bringing light precipitation to the wester ME mountains and northern NH. It will take awhile for the present dry air to erode, and this should keep much of the shower activity at bay until during the day Tuesday.

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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Initial warm front will bring moisture to the front door, but incoming frontal boundary Tuesday will push further across NH and ME later. SW moisture flow will move in line with New England, bringing a period of unsettled conditions to the region.

While temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 70s Tuesday, there will be isolated to scattered showers invading from the west. Jet dynamics are lacking, but 1.5 inch PWAT should lead to some heavier showers into the afternoon with marginal instability.

By the evening and early overnight warm cloud depth improves as does mean RH with tall thin CAPE. Motion vectors do align in a way that could lead to some training cells as embedded waves move along the broad unsettled region and slow moving boundary. This morning`s HREF QPF solution was very damp (relatively speaking) for southern NH. Members were mostly in agreement with each other, bringing the front through northern NH and much of southern ME before better forcing intensifies showers late. Depending on the placement, showers train along this boundary and to the south of it into the later afternoon and evening hours. Should these be efficient and move over the same location for awhile, totals around or above 1 inch will be possible. Would like to see some continuity before honing in on location and any higher amounts.

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message: Finally some chances for rain thru the end of the week. The rain will be welcomed but do little to alleviate drought.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond maintaining/deepening drought conditions.

Forecast Details: The first batch of rain will be exiting the area Wed morning. Cannot rule out some pop up showers during the day...but it will likely be dry and lingering PoP is more of an artifact of timing uncertainty in model guidance.

This is primarily due to the fact that northwestern Atlantic ridging builds back quickly as large upper low over the Midwest lifts into the Great Lakes. This WAA pattern will keep temps running near to above normal...but also keep the threat of showers in the forecast due to diurnal heating.

The strongest push of WAA will occur on Thu...and that may bring another round of light wetting rain. Ensemble guidance is a little more spread with this event...but similar to Tue into Wed...the 90th percentile rainfall is about a half inch and a mean around 0.20 inches. It will not be enough to break the drought by any means...but it will be welcomed rainfall nonetheless.

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.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR this afternoon and early evening. Southerly winds will subside, but light breeze will continue overnight. Expect another field of stratus with fog development tonight, mainly across the interior. Clouds linger Tuesday as SHRA become more common through the early afternoon. A focused region of heavier showers will be possible into the late afternoon and evening hours for southern NH terminals. This may result in MVFR/IFR ceilings.

Long Term...There will be a period from Wed into Thu where precip and marine influence will lead to lower CIGs. Aside from local MVFR or lower in SHRA/RA...there may also be an area of marine fog/stratus that develops Wed and moves southwestward down the coast. Coastal terminals could see IFR or lower conditions thru Wed night...especially from PWM south.

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.MARINE... Short Term...Wave heights will slowly increase 3 to 6 ft tonight into Tuesday on the coastal waters. A slow moving front will approach the waters Tuesday, with one or two disturbances nearing by Tuesday evening. This will provide the chance for showers as well as a wind shift late Tuesday into Tuesday night. SCA continues mainly for waves, but gusts will be approaching 20 kt late Tuesday night.

Long Term...Any lingering SCA conditions will diminish Wed. Swell from Gabrielle may linger into the second half of the work week. Areas of fog may develop Wed and linger into Thu ahead of frontal systems moving thru the region.

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.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ152-154.

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NEAR TERM...Cornwell SHORT TERM...Cornwell LONG TERM...Legro AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro MARINE...Cornwell/Legro

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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