Glen Ullin, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

539
FXUS63 KBIS 092255
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
555 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures expected through the week.
- Mostly dry with smoky skies through Wednesday, then low to
  medium chances for showers and storms late Wednesday through
  Friday.
- Increasing chances for rain across the western half of the
  state this weekend, with medium chances for at least half an
  inch of rain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A couple of orographically induced showers had developed near
the Turtle Mountains and have nearly dissipated already.
Otherwise, sunny skies were the rule across wester and central
ND this Tuesday afternoon. No updates needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
An upper level ridge continues to build over the Northern Plains
this afternoon leading to near to above normal temperature
across the region. There is a little bit of near surface smoke
in the southwest likely to clear out tomorrow. Highs today will
sit in the 80s across the west and central with some upper 70s
in the James River Valley. Overnight lows are forecast to sit in
the 50s. Hi-Res models do have some patch fog develop across
the south and eastern half of the state early tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s.
The upper level ridge will pass overhead during the middle of
the week bringing in a low level thermal ridge Thursday across
eastern Montana into western North Dakota this could lead to
temperatures in the lower 90s out west. While, the remainder of
the state is forecast to sit in the 70s to 80s. Lee troughing
east of the Northern Rockies and surface high pressure over the
Great Lake will lead to a north south orientated pressure
gradient. This will lead to breezy winds out west Wednesday and
much of the state Thursday. A shortwave is forecast to move into
the region late Wednesday brining in a shot for showers and
thunderstorms early Thursday morning out west and the rest of
the state during the day. Instability Thursday is forecast to be
around 2000 J/kg with around 20 to 30 kts of 0-6 km shear. CSU
machine learning program is also highlighting this day for a
low chances of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center does
have much of western and central North Dakota in a marginal
risk for Thursday.
Daily low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the end of the week. Thunderstorm and shower
activity looks to pick up Friday into the weekend as a broad
trough pushes through the plains. The NBM continues to show a
decent signal of precipitation accumulations this weekend. The
NBM has medium chances for half an inch of rain across the
state with the higher chances out west.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions to begin the 00Z TAF period and expect mostly VFR
conditions through the period. There may be some patch fog or
low stratus over the south central into the James River Valley,
but the potential at any one TAF site remains too low for a
mention fog/stratus at this time. Generally light east to
southeast winds through tonight. Southeast winds increase on
Wednesday with winds generally 15-25kts through Wednesday
afternoon west and south central and 10-20kts north central into
the James River Valley.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion