Glen Fork, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

026
FXUS61 KRLX 130710
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
310 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably warm this weekend into next
week under high pressure`s rule. Heightened fire weather
risk through next week due to very dry conditions in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...
All is quiet on the front with high pressure maintaining our
arid spell. Clear skies and cool temperatures in the 50s will
promote another round of valley fog this morning. Fog could be
locally dense in spots. Otherwise, dry weather, clear skies and
very warm temperatures persist for our Saturday.
High temperatures will be a bit above normal with the lowlands
reaching the mid to upper 80s and the mountains staying in the
upper 60s to the lower 80s. These temperatures paired up with
dew points in the 40s and lower 50s will create relative
humidity percentages in the upper 20s and lower 30s across much
of the area this afternoon. This scenario creates a heightened
risk for wildfire start this afternoon. Luckily, winds will be
light (below 10 mph) which will keep fire spread from running
rampant. Therefore, no fire weather headlines are expected at
this time, unless special circumstances arise.
Another clear and calm night is expected tonight with more
valley/river fog in the forecast. A slight disturbance, a weak
front, is expected to move by late tonight into Sunday. Rain
chances are nonexistent with its passage, but some high-level
clouds are possible and this may disrupt the fog formation. Low
temperatures will be a bit warmer with a few locations across
the lowlands only dropping down to around 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Saturday ...
Ridge pattern sets up for the close of the weekend and beginning
of the new week. That said, the broken record continues to play
with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and unseasonably warm
temperatures. The aforementioned diffuse frontal boundary may
include some high-level clouds moving in on Monday, but that is
really the only event of note during the short-term, outside of
the likely dense valley fog each morning and risk of wildfire
start.
As mentioned above, temperatures will be warmer than normal
both Sunday and Monday, with Monday being exceptionally warm.
However, not expecting and record setting heat. Overnight lows
will be on the cooler side, but still around the seasonal norm.
-Lowlands: Highs in the 80s with a few locations grazing the
 lower 90s. Lows dropping back in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
-Mountains: 70s to the low 80s as high temperatures, with lows
 in the 50s.
Wildfire start risk continues with the lack of rainfall and dry
airmass. Humidity percentages will be in the 30s for most
locations both Monday and Tuesday afternoons; it is possible
for the warmest locations across the Metro Valley and Tri-State
Area to dip into the upper 20s on Monday afternoon.
Northeasterly winds should remain light enough to prevent
issuance of products unless a situational case crops up.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 259 AM Saturday...
Stalwart and redundant high pressure and accompanying ridge
pattern are locked in for the long-term. By the middle of next
week, the temperature scheme will be unwavering with the
lowlands continuing to see highs in the upper 80s and even some
lower 90s each afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and
lower 60s.
A system looks to graze the eastern CONUS, offshore from VA.
Chances (15%-25%) for rainfall return each evening Tuesday
through Thursday, but only across our eastern mountains,
particularly the lee side (eastern Pocahontas County).
Confidence is still low for any beneficial rainfall though, as
models do not agree on a solution; the ECMWF remains
surprisingly bullish, throwing likely PoPs into the region and
the GFS keeps the forecast area virtually bone dry until late
Thursday. A weekend southern stream system does look possible,
so kept broadbrushed chances for showers Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 AM Saturday...
Some dense fog is expected to form in the river and mountain
valleys tonight. Impacts will be similar to last night with
scattered MVFR and IFR restrictions. CRW, EKN, and PKB are sites
of higher confidence for these conditions.
Fog will lift and scatter at all sites by ~14z this morning
giving way to SKC, light and variable winds, and VFR conditions.
Some mid-level clouds may form late in the morning into early
afternoon as light winds begin with mixing.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location, timing, and impacts associated
with fog development tonight may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              SAT 09/13/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in valley fog each morning through
at least early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure allowing for continued dry weather with a warming
trend into next week. Temperatures across portions of the
lowlands will climb well into the 80s each afternoon, coupled
with dew points in the 40s and 50s. This will lead to minimum
relative humidity percentages dropping into the upper 20s and
30s each afternoon. There is an increased risk for wildfire
start as a result. RH values will recover each night with
temperatures dropping into the 50s and lower 60s.
Luckily winds will remain light (less than 10 mph) each
afternoon, so significant spread is not anticipated for any
fires if they do form. Still, it is important to remain mindful
and vigilant with any fuel sources or with burning outdoors.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
FIRE WEATHER...LTC

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion