Glasgo, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

980
FXUS61 KOKX 012316
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure building in from the north into
Thursday and will remains over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
into Monday. The high will then moves slowly offshore, with a
cold front approaching the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
After near record warmth to close September, the month of
October opens with a more typical autumn air mass.
Large dome of high pressure centered over Quebec continues to
build south over the Northeast through tonight. The tightened
pressure gradient between the building high and a pair of
tropical cyclones to our south and east over the Atlantic has
led to gusty NE flow locally, though these winds diminish this
evening as the gradient relaxes some, but not entirely. The
lingering flow could mitigate the most efficient radiative
cooling tonight, but it`s not out of the question some areas
decouple and cool a bit more than forecast. Skies remain clear
with the high pressure and subsidence as temperatures fall back
into the 40s for most, or lower 50s in the NYC metro. Coldest
spots in Orange County could fall into the mid or upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sprawling ridge and surface high pressure dominates as the
center settles over the Northeast.
Thursday likely the coolest day this week with the core of the
autumn air mass in place. Highs in the afternoon should get
into the mid 60s just about everywhere, or about 5 degrees below
normal for early October. A cirrus veil looks to move in by
late afternoon from the west, otherwise abundant sunshine
prevails.
Another cool night then expected, and with lighter flow,
anticipate more efficient radiative cooling and could see the
typical spots in Orange County and the LI Pine Barrens fall into
the upper 30s into Friday morning. Blended in MAV/MET data with
the national blended guidance to better capture this.
The center of the high looks to drift overhead on Friday, and
absent the lingering cirrus, sunshine continues in calm
conditions and seasonable. By late day, the upper ridge over the
eastern two thirds of the CONUS begins to translate east,
helping to usher in a warmer air mass for the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Vertically stacked high pressure will remain in place this
  weekend into early next week with dry conditions.
* The surface high will slide east east Monday night into
  Tuesday and the ridge aloft will flatten as a cold front
  slowly approaches from the west. There is a chance of showers
  Tuesday night into Wednesday, and if the latest ECMWF is
  correct even this time frame could remain dry.
* Temperatures through most of the period will remain well above
  normal. Temps on Wed will depend on the progression of the
  front, and could also end up well above rather than closer to
  normal if the frontal timing is slower than forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds southward into the region through the TAF
period.
VFR conditions.
NE winds subside tonight. Wind direction becomes more easterly on
Thursday. Possible sea breezes develop late Thursday afternoon at 5
to 10 kt. The winds will be light and mainly variable in direction
later Thursday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may end a little later than anticipated this evening for a few
terminals, otherwise no amendments expected tonight. There remains
some uncertainty around sea breeze development late Thursday
afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night-Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SE-S swell from post tropical cyclone Humberto and Hurricane
Imelda and an easterly wind wave continue to produce 6-9 ft
seas on the ocean where SCA remains in effect until 2 AM Fri,
and 4-7 ft on western Block Island Sound where SCA remains in
effect through tonight. NE winds are also likely still gusting
up to 25 kt on the ern ocean waters.
Winds and seas then remain below SCA levels through Mon night as
swell subsides and high pressure remains over the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Suffolk,
Nassau, and Queens until 8 PM, for high surf impacting the
oceanfront. Meanwhile, the Freeport and Lindenhurst tide gauges
both came in just shy of minor flood thresholds late today.
Swell, surf, and total water levels will lower this evening
into Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion