Gilbert, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

444
FXUS62 KCAE 180550
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Although a weak upper level trough remains over the region, the
airmass remains relatively dry. This will keep dry weather and
warming temps into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and warm conditions will continue.
Early this morning: Light winds and mostly clear skies for most
of the forecast area. Exception would be along the Savannah
River where guidance still showing the potential for morning fog
and low stratus development. Morning lows in the lower 60s still
look on track.
Today and Tonight: Weak upper trough remains across the region
through tonight. Much of the forecast area will remain on the
dry side again. However HRRR is still showing the potential for
an isolated shower or storm across the southern Midlands and
central/southern CSRA late this afternoon. While this can not be
completely ruled out as the sea-breeze moves inland and brings a
slight increase in moisture behind it, due to low confidence in
development and coverage, will keep forecast dry at this time.
Afternoon highs continue with a warming trend, with readings in
the upper 80s to around 90. For tonight, dry through the night.
Light winds, clearing skies, and dry air should allow for
another night with good radiational cooling. Overnight lows in
the middle 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and warm conditions as we head into the weekend.
In the wake of the upper low exiting and associated troughing lift
northeast away from our area, steady height rises are expected for
Friday and Saturday along with broad weak surface ridging. With a
lack of any advection but still high sun angle, temps will warm
above average both days and general subsidence aloft should keep
cloud cover scattered along despite near average PWAT`s. High temps
should climb to around 90 F for most of the area both days and some
onshore component surface flow will push dew points into the mid
60`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Modest cooldown expected as strong surface high pressure
  builds in.
Into next week, the synoptic pattern aloft will not change all that
much through the rest of the long term period with relatively weak
flow and steady heights. However, a sharp trough digging across the
NE CONUS and coupled surface high upstream will leading to steadily
increasing surface ridging over the area starting Sunday. Some
subtle cold-dry advection look to be associated with this sagging
surface high, so temps will generally fall back around average
Sunday through Tuesday. NAEFS consistently shows this strong surface
ridging and southwesterly flow aloft, this could be a decent wedge
setup if it wasn`t for the lack of sufficient PWAT`s and low level
moisture; otherwise the dry and rather unremarkable looks to
continue with NAEFS and EC EFI showing nothing particularly
anomalous into next week. The next chance for any appreciable
rain begins the middle of next as a decent percentage of the ECE
and GEFS show a wave of higher PWAT`s overrunning the in place
surface ridging.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions possible in the CSRA towards sunrise. Otherwise mainly
VFR conditions expected.
Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Guidance continues
to show the potential for visibility and low ceiling
restrictions towards sunrise along the Savannah River,
especially at AGS. Have included a tempo period with lifr
visibilities and ceilings between 09z-13z right along the river
at AGS, and ifr conditions at DNL for the same period. VFR
conditions expected at all other locations through the taf
period. As for winds, mainly light and variable around 5 knots
through the day, then near calm conditions through the overnight
hours. Mostly dry weather conditions are expected across the
Midlands sites of CAE/CUB/OGB. At AGS/DNL, guidance shows a low
possibility of an isolated shower or storm late this afternoon,
but do not plan on putting in tafs at this time due to low
confidence in both coverage and development.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will be
over the region for much of the extended and no significant
aviation restrictions expected. However brief periods of early
morning fog/stratus remains possible at AGS and OGB.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion