Georgetown, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

203
FXUS63 KILX 301111
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will likely continue through this weekend over
  central and southeast IL, and lead to worsening drought impacts
  and an increased risk of field fires. Very warm daytime highs in
  the mid to upper 80s to continue through Monday, with some
  locations approaching 90 especially this afternoon and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
An omega block pattern continues across the country this week with
a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and Texas and ridging
into IL. This to keep the very dry and warm pattern going through
Monday across central and SE IL. Currently a 588-590 decameter
500 mb high was over central/northern IL into central/northern WI
into eastern Iowa and northeast MO. A weak upper level trof was
over the mid Atlantic States and off the southeast Atlantic
and FL coast. At the surface a strong 1032-1034 mb Canadian high
pressure was over northern Ontario and James Bay and ridging sw
across WI and IA. Nearly clear skies over CWA early this morning,
with patches of 7-9k ft clouds in sw IL, sw of a Litchfield to
Flora line and drifting slowly sw. Some thin cirrus clouds were
over northern central IL. Patchy shallow/ground fog near the
Indiana border. Light NE to calm winds over CWA with temps 55-65F
at 330 am.
500 mb high weakens slightly to 586-587 decameters tonight and Wed
but will stay fairly strong over IL through this weekend. Strong
and large Canadian high settles se over Quebec by sunset Wed and
then builds southward over the mid Atlantic States and southern
New England late this week while ridging back into the mid MS
river valley. These nearby high pressure systems at surface and
aloft to keep CWA dry through at least this weekend and likely
through the day Monday. A fair amount of sunshine again today, but
will see some increasing clouds over the IL river valley this
afternoon and over rest of area during tonight into Wed. Clouds to
then decrease from the west during Thu. Highs today in the upper
80s to near 90F and mid to upper 80s Wed/Thu. Temps could sneak up
a bit Friday and Sat with SSW flow increasing to modest levels by
this weekend.
Models showing a cold front moving se into central IL next Tuesday
and this may be our next best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.
In the tropics, tropical storm Imelda with 65 mph was 205 miles
east of Cape Canaveral FL at 2 am EDT is forecast by NHC to become
a hurricane later today as it tracks NE reaching near Bermuda by
Wed evening with 80-90 mph winds. Much stronger hurricane Humberto
with 115 mph winds was much further northeast and forecast to
track to the west and north of Bermuda later today and tonight as
it weakens to 80 mph by dawn Wed.
With several more days of warm and dry conditions through Monday,
worsening drought impacts will be seen across central and
southeast IL. Field fires will also be a concern as harvest
activity peaks in early October. The potential for low end wind
gusts this weekend combined with dry fuels and low relative
humidity levels could lead to an elevated fire risk.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Oct
7-13th has 55-65% chance of above normal temperatures over IL
(highest percentages in southeast IL) and 33-40% chance of above
normal precipitation (lowest percentages in southeast IL).
07
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. Skies will
be clear to start, but a few clouds around 5kft will develop at
SPI and PIA tomorrow afternoon. Cirrus at all sites from
afternoon to evening. Winds will increase tomorrow out of the ENE
around 10 kts and then decrease a few knots in the evening.
Auten
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Record high temperatures through Wednesday:
Location      Tuesday    Wednesday
--------     ----------  ---------
Bloomington   98 (1953)  92 (1897)
Champaign     91 (1971)  92 (1897)
Charleston    92 (1933)  94 (2019)
Decatur       94 (1922)  93 (1897)
Lincoln       93 (1952)  91 (2019)
Olney         93 (1952)  94 (1952)
Peoria        91 (1933)  89 (1937)
Springfield   92 (1971)  91 (2019)
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion