Georgetown, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

009
FXUS65 KPIH 060410
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1010 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated dry thunderstorms possible today
- Coverage for showers and thunderstorms still increases over
  the weekend
- Temps begin a downward trend early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery shows mainly clear, albeit hazy, skies
across eastern Idaho today. Smoke and haze from regional wildfires
is obscuring visibilty across the area especially across parts of
the central mountains and upper Snake Plain. Despite the haze,
temperatures remain on the warmer side of normal for most locations
with the lower elevations expected to climb into the low to mid 80s
by the time afternoon is through. Hi-res models show a low, but non-
zero, chance for a very isolated shower across the central mountains
today but generally expecting things to be dry. Otherwise, things
look quiet across the region today with light winds although haze
will likely linger.
Things change tomorrow as moisture increases a bit from the south
bringing increasing clouds as early as daybreak down along the Utah
and Nevada borders, overspreading the rest of the area over
throughout the day. CAMs show a much higher potential for
showers/storms during the afternoon tomorrow basically anywhere with
20-40 PoPs in place over the area. Higher terrain areas look to have
the best chances but can`t rule something in the Magic Valley and
Snake Plain at some point in the day so some places will get some
beneficial rainfall. Temps tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler
with increased cloud cover and precip chances but these looks to
continue to trend downward as we move into next week. More on that
below.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Second significant shortwave of the weekend shifts through the
region Sunday for another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across Southeast Idaho. There is at least a 10% chance
of a tenth of an inch or better rainfall Sunday afternoon and
evening for all of East Idaho Those chances raise significantly for
the Pahsimeroi range northeast along the Divide and then south to
around the Big Holes with greater than a 35% chance for these areas.
Probabilities for more than a quarter inch of rainfall drop off
significantly, maxing at 15-20% for areas around Island Park and the
Big Holes. Drier conditions are in place for Monday following the
departing system, but moisture returns for the remainder of the
week. Ensemble means remain consistent with bringing center of
Pacific low inland along the coast by Tuesday, gradually shifting
east as an open trough to near or over East Idaho by Friday. There
are slight differences in the ensemble clusters regarding the
character of the trough as it encroaches into Idaho. Overall the
general forecast remains similar to previous runs. Expect isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day starting Tuesday,
with temperatures dropping into the 70s for most if not all lower
elevation areas.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 958 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Main impact will be some minor smoke visibility restrictions but
kept at 6 miles overnight. After that will start to see some
shower and thunderstorm vicinity after 18Z tomorrow mainly at
BYI and SUN expanding to the other sites after 22Z and
continuing into Saturday night. Winds Saturday afternoon should
shift to an up valley west to southwest direction but remaining
about 10 knots sustained.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly across
zone 422, the southern portions of 475 and 756, and along the Utah
border for 413 and 427. Very little precipitation is expected from
anything that can develop, and the remainder of the region will
remain dry. More moisture moves into the region for the weekend,
with better chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.
Sunday looks to be the wetter day, with model probabilities
supporting a 30-40% chance of wetting rains Sunday afternoon and
evening for zone 411 and adjoining portions of 476 and 410.
Probabilities of wetting rains drop off to 15-25% for the remainder
of the higher elevation zones. The next surge of moisture arrives
Tuesday through the remainder of the week with the upper ridge axis
weakening and shifting east as a Pacific low shifts inland. Expect
temperatures to cool into the 70s for most lower elevation areas by
the latter half of the week, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
each day.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion