Gateway, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

631
FXUS64 KTSA 141721
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Heat index values will be in the mid 90s today through
   Tuesday, which could increase heat stress potential for those
   with outdoor plans.
- 10-20% chance of showers this afternoon, with the highest potential
   along and west of Hwy 75 where isolated thunderstorms are also
   possible.
- Higher rain chances arrive mid week with temperatures falling
   back to near or below average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon and tonight )
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Upper level ridging has shifted east of the area in response to a an
approaching upper level low. Weak forcing associated with the low
will act on modest instability and somewhat increased flow. A few
showers and thunderstorms will likely kick off across central
Oklahoma, with a 15-30% chance of these storms moving into eastern
Oklahoma. DCAPE will be elevated, so any storms would be capable
of locally strong gusty outflow winds. Temperatures will remain on
the hot side today, in the lower 90s, with afternoon heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s. Overnight tonight, shower activity will
diminish for the most part, with just a couple of very isolated
showers possible. Low temperatures will again fall to the mid 60s
to around 70 F.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Upper level ridging somewhat recovers Monday and Tuesday, but the
ridge will be strung out along its axis. The result will be mostly
flat temperature trends with at least a slight chance of a few
diurnal showers and storms, especially Tuesday.
By Wednesday the next upper level low will approach. It will linger
just to the northwest of the area as an additional weak feature
merges with it from the north, finally moving east on Friday. As the
low sits nearby it will put the area under decent flow and upper
level diffluence. It will act on a warm, humid, and unstable
environment, resulting in several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Due to the storm system trending somewhat deeper and
slower, ensemble guidance has increased the forecast total
precipitation, with many areas seeing 0.25-1" during this period. A
few locations could be locally higher. Severe weather can`t totally
be ruled out but will not be widespread. With the more widespread
cloud cover and rainfall, forecast temperatures have been lowered,
with several days of temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Diffuse troughing will remain in place even as the main low exits
east next Friday-Saturday, keeping low end Pops going with
temperatures remaining near to a little below normal. Ensemble
guidance reveals uncertainty in regards to the degree that this
troughing will linger. If troughing exits more quickly, the
forecast would end up warmer and drier than at present.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Mostly VFR conditions expected again across all sites through the
period. One exception will be the potential for a thunderstorm to
affect portions of NE OK this afternoon, with best chances for
KBVO from mid to late afternoon, so have introduced a PROB30
group there. Otherwise, mid and high cloud will be prevalent over
the region through the period, with generally light southerly
winds around 10 knots. A few gusts around 15 knots will be
possible across NE OK this afternoon.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  93  70  92 /  20  10   0  10
FSM   73  94  70  95 /  10  20   0  20
MLC   69  93  67  93 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   67  92  64  91 /  20  10   0  10
FYV   68  92  64  91 /  10  20  10  20
BYV   68  91  66  90 /  10  20  10  40
MKO   70  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   68  91  65  92 /  10  10   0  20
F10   69  92  66  92 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion