Gardiner, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

769
FXUS65 KBYZ 180741
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
141 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warmer conditions through Sunday.
- Quick cold frontal passage Sunday night brings a chance (20-40%)
  for precipitation, cooler temperatures, and gusty northwest
  winds Monday.
- More warm dry weather expected Tuesday through Thursday next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...
Stubborn upper low will remain centered over the western Dakotas
today, with chunks of energy rotating southward across eastern
Montana through the day and into this evening. Overall models are
not impressed enough with this energy to generate much in the way
of showers/thunderstorms. However, given recent precipitation
(ground moisture) and instability from the upper low being in the
area, will add some low precipitation chances as far west as
Rosebud county to account for the non-zero potential. Temperatures
today are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s central and west,
while areas along the eastern state line (Baker/Ekalaka) look to
stay in the upper 60s with more cloud cover and continued easterly
winds.
Most of the upper level circulation shifts far enough east to not
be a factor in our weather Friday. However, a weak disturbance
from Canada slides through the area late in the day and stick
around the eastern half of the forecast area Saturday. The main
impact with this feature will be increased cloud cover late
Friday and a bit slower warm up for eastern zones through
Saturday. Will have to see if models generate any precipitation
chances for SE Montana going forward from this feature. But for
now a warm and dry forecast remains intact heading into the
weekend. Highs Friday will be similar to today, mid 70s west and
near 70 east. Highs Saturday jump 4 to 8 degrees over Friday
levels, with many locations in the 80s.
Main change to the forecast is with what was a weak disturbance
crossing laterally west to east across the area Sunday. This
system has intensified over the past few model runs. Sunday
doesn`t look as warm as it did previously with highs mainly in the
70 to lower 80s, but Monday has really seen a temperature decline
with highs now in the 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation potential
has increased as well, mainly Sunday night, but likely will bleed
into Monday a bit as well. Current NBM showing a tenth to two
tenths of precipitation possible as this system moves through the
area. Winds will also increase with this system with gusts on
monday in the 20 to 30 mph range.
The energy with the Sunday/Monday system then drops down into the
southern plains where it stalls out and then meanders back
northward toward Iowa by mid week. This generates yet another
blocking patter downstream of Montana. Ridging behind the Monday
wave amplifies in this stagnant stream and persists toward the end
of the week. A Pacific system that was projected to move into the
area Thursday, is now blocked from making it into the area and
shifts north into W CA. So, with ridging over the area above
normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast. Chambers
.AVIATION...
06z Discussion...
A stray shower may linger over SE MT through 08z. Localized FG
may develop, especially in low lying areas and river valleys,
after 8z before dissipating shortly after sunrise. KMLS may see a
few hours of reduced visibility between 10-16z. Winds should
remain fairly light throughout the period with the predominant
direction turning to easterly Thursday afternoon. An isolated
shower is a possibility again Thursday afternoon and evening,
especially in Eastern MT. WMR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 050/076 051/083 055/082 051/072 048/079 050/080
    1/U 10/U    00/U    01/U    41/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 076 043/077 045/082 048/077 041/071 042/079 045/079
    0/U 00/B    00/U    02/T    41/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 077 046/077 047/084 049/084 049/072 043/080 046/083
    1/U 20/U    00/U    00/U    51/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 073 048/074 048/082 050/083 052/069 045/078 048/079
    2/W 20/U    00/U    00/U    31/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 070 046/072 048/079 052/081 051/067 046/074 048/077
    2/W 20/U    00/U    00/U    32/W    10/U    00/U
BHK 066 043/069 045/078 048/082 048/068 044/074 045/075
    3/T 20/B    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U
SHR 072 042/075 046/081 048/081 046/069 041/077 044/081
    1/U 20/U    00/U    01/U    42/W    10/U    00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
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NWS byz Office Area Forecast Discussion