Four Buttes, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

580
FXUS65 KGGW 182051
AFDGGW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
251 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Expect lingering showers and thunderstorms today through
  tonight.
- Dry and warming conditions are expected Friday through Sunday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Today: The low pressure complex is starting to finally morph into
one single circulation, the center of which is now moving
northward from South Dakota into North Dakota. Leftover lingering
precipitation associated with this northward- migrating low
pressure system is still impacting northeast Montana with low-
level stratiform rain near the North Dakota border and mid-level
convective isolated thunderstorms near and west of MT- Highway 24.
This general unsettled activity will gradually diminish away
toward the southeast by Friday morning. Overall rainfall totals
under these small cells will likely be less than a wetting
rain (0.10") for most locations that happen to be directly in
their paths before it all exits to the southeast after tonight.
The remainder of the weekend will bring dry and warm conditions
under a ridge of high pressure. Afterward, the ridge will topple
over due to a cold front Sunday night and Monday, which could
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms along with slightly
stronger winds behind it.
Monday night onward: Once the cold air associated with the cold
front moves through the area, another high pressure ridge from
the southwest will begin to build in again, bringing more warming
and dry conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Deviations with hi-res precip models today in the hourly PoPs to
account for the low pressure exterior lift zone that is generating
a few thunderstorms on radar and NLDN data early this morning.
This lift zone was not adequately captured by the NBM with near
zero PoPs until it moves over southern Phillips and northern
Garfield later this afternoon.
Confidence is average for precipitation timing, and amounts.
Confidence is high for the temperature forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATE: 2051Z, 9/18
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: The entire region remains under the influence of a
migrating low pressure system which is slowly moving northward.
Our local lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit toward the
southeast later tonight. MVFR to IFR level low clouds will persist
for KSDY and KGDV.
WIND: From the SE and E around 10 to 15 kts today, then near calm
overnight.
EQUIPMENT: Comms issues with the KSDY observation remain. AMD NOT
SKED will remain in place until METARs are available.
&&
.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow

NWS GGW Office Area Forecast Discussion