Fordtran, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

409
FXUS64 KEWX 041055
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue with low end (10-20%)
  rain chances early to middle of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A weak upper level low along or just off the Louisiana coast looks
to remain too far away to provide much influence to our region this
weekend. Best opportunity for any rain would be confined near the
lower to middle Texas coast. Today looks to stay rain free across
our region outside from perhaps a late day very brief light shower
while Sunday afternoon may be a little better for the sea breeze
bringing a few showers into our far southeastern counties. The
temperatures remain above average otherwise under partly to mostly
clear skies. The afternoon highs range from the mid to upper 80s
across portions of the Hill Country to the low to mid 90s for the
rest of the region. Nights are mild with the overnight lows from
the low to mid 60s to near 70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The upper level low along the northern Gulf coast erodes entering
the start of the workweek. It is supplanted quickly by mid-level
ridging building across the northern Gulf. The positioning of the
ridge initially through early next week could help to deepen and
increase the onshore flow slightly into Texas, which should help
draw some slightly higher moisture levels farther inland. Late
Tuesday through Wednesday could see the arrival of high clouds as
well with some ties to the Eastern Pacific. There looks like that
enough moisture is in play to maintain PoPs in the 10-20% range
Monday through Wednesday. Monday favors to the east of I-35 while
Tuesday and Wednesday could see the Hill Country and Rio Grande
involved. Rain chances diminish late week as the ridge slides
westward and becomes more centered over the state. With this
position, the ridge should also keep any deeper moisture from the
Bay of Campeche confined well to our south.
Temperatures remain steady and above average through next week as
well with highs ranging from the mid 80s in portions of the Hill
Country to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Lows from the mid 60s
into the low 70s will be common.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Satellite imagery and surface observations show MVFR CIGs have
developed over the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country south
to the Winter Garden. Forecast moisture profiles and HREF
probabilities indicate these CIGs will dissipate mid morning, then
redevelop overnight into Sunday morning over the same areas. Will
maintain FEW-SCT012 at KSAT/KSSF/KDRT this morning and overnight
into early Sunday morning as these sites are on either edge of the
CIGs. Otherwise, VFR flying conditions will prevail today through
Sunday morning. Light and VRBL winds overnight into early morning
will mix to NE to SE at 7 to 11 KTs midday through this evening
with a brief increase to 10 to 16 KTs with gusts to 25 KTs early
this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  69  93  70 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            88  66  89  67 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  66  91  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             92  67  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  66  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  67  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           93  70  93  71 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...04

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion