Fieldale, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

136
FXUS61 KRNK 260006
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
806 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will enter the Mid-Atlantic from the west tonight
and stall in the region. Several days of showers and
thunderstorms will occur along with the front`s  presence.
&&
.NEAR TERm /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...
Key Message:
1) Showers and thunderstorm chances continue into overnight.
The cold front is moving painfully slow, but is still expected to
pass into the region this evening and overnight. There is no
guarantee, however, that it will be completely through by sunrise on
Friday morning. While there are currently a few cluster of storms in
the area, nothing has reached severe potential yet. The recent CAM
model guidance suggests precipitation chances continue into the
evening and overnight into Friday morning. Modest favorable storm
parameters such as shear and CAPE will linger and the counties in VA
that border NC and the NC counties themselves will be in the best
position to receive precipitation and some severe weather. The
severe weather threat is still limited, but damaging wind gusts
cannot be ruled out at least. Otherwise, lightning may be a concern
as well as heavy rain given moist conditions. Flooding remains a low
threat due to the fast speed anticipated with these storms. Lastly,
there may be some overnight fog for most of the area due to clouds
with very low ceilings.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Line of showers with embedded thunderstorms later this afternoon
2) Localized downpours within showers
An upper level trough is approaching the Mid-Atlantic, and bringing
a cold front with it. This upper level support will take advantage
of an increasingly moist atmospheric profile and modest instability
to form showers and thunderstorms. A dense overcast cloud deck from
this morning is finally showing signs of breaking up. The increasing
insolation will work to destabilize the lower atmosphere and really
get convection firing. Damaging winds and localized heavy downpours
are the greatest threats this afternoon and evening, though there
aren`t widespread flooding concerns as the storm motion is rather
quick. There is also considerable shear (18Z sounding from
Blacksburg measured 33kt 0-3km shear) and 500+ J/kg of DCAPE,
meaning an eye will have to be kept on any rotating storms for
tornadic signals. Downbursts could also result.
After the true front passes tonight, temperatures will cool slightly
and winds will shift from southeasterly to northerly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Showers/storms expected each day as a front stays stalled to the
east.
2) Temperatures will be cooler, but near normal.
A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the
eastern portion of the area, keeping unsettled weather around. At
the same time an upper-level longwave trough begins to close into a
cutoff upper low over the Tennessee Valley. The southerly flow aloft
due to the low will keep rich moisture from both the Gulf and
Atlantic flowing into the Mid-Atlantic Region, with widespread
showers and storms expected on Saturday. Rain could be heavy at
times, and will continue into the overnight hours Saturday night.
Severe weather is not likely due to limited instability from heavy
cloud cover, but cannot be ruled out, with isolated damaging wind
gusts being the main threat, as there will be elevated wind shear
with the trough in place.
Sunday will continue to see shower/storm chances, particularly in
the afternoon with the aid of diurnal heating, but relatively drier
air aloft will limit convection to be more scattered across the
area. Any storms will dissipate after sunset into the overnight
hours.
Rain totals will be ample across the area, with the highest amounts
in the eastern Piedmont. Around 0.50-1.00" is expected west of the
Blue Ridge, with 1-2"+ possible across the Piedmont, due to the
moisture flow. Locally higher amounts will be possible where the
heavier convection occurs. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is
across the entire area on Saturday, as recent heavy rains have
saturated the soil and could cause isolated flash flooding in urban
and flood-prone areas.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side due to heavy cloud cover
with the front lingering in the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s
for the mountains with low to mid 70s across the Piedmont Saturday,
with a slight warmup to area-wide 70s on Sunday. Overnight lows stay
mild but consistent, in the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Invest 94L may impact our area early next week.
2) Rain chances continue each day, rainfall could be heavy.
3) Cool temperatures persist due to heavy cloud cover.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for early
next week, as two tropical disturbances are in the Western Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Humberto has already formed, but will remain well
offshore and head out to sea, with no impacts to our area. The more
concerning potential system is Invest 94L, which is currently near
the Dominican Republic and will move over the Bahamas this weekend.
It is expected to develop into a tropical system, which would become
Imelda, and continue moving NNW towards the CONUS. There has been a
substantial shift in model guidance since yesterday with 94L, with
most models now coming into agreement that the system will develop
quicker and stay to the northwest of Humberto rather than to the
west or southwest. This difference means that 94L would be less
likely to be affected by Humberto and would continue on a NNW track
towards the Carolina coastlines as it will be drawn towards the
trough over the Eastern CONUS. However there are still unknown
details to be determined such as how strong the system will be, how
far north the system moves inland, and what direct impacts it will
have on our area.
With the synoptic setup above, the forecast for next week is for
showers/storms to continue each day of the forecast period. With
94L, or potential Imelda moving our direction, it will at least add
additional moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Region, which could enhance
rainfall significantly if the system moves far enough north before a
strong high pressure system over Canada blocks it. There is
potential for a heavy rainfall event, though confidence remains low
in this occurring at this time. Nonetheless, rainfall is expected
each day of the period. Even if 94L does not directly impact the
area, rain chances will still continue each day, though coverage
will be less.
Temperatures will remain cool, due to heavy cloud cover persisting
through the period. Highs will be in the 60s/70s each day, with a
slight drop to area-wide 60s on Thursday. Lows remain mild, in the
50s/60s early in the week, before falling late week into the
40s/50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...
Sub-VFR conditions are forecast to dominate this evening into
tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already
passed through most of the terminals, but rain will likely
continue into the night, especially for KDAN. Even if these
showers weaken and dissipate during the night, extensive low
level clouds will degrade sky conditions to IFR and even LIFR
status. All terminals should expect reduced visibilities due to
very low cloud ceilings overnight and ending just after sunrise.
The worst of the conditions, and thus LIFR status, are forecast
to be at KBLF and KLWB. At these two terminals, visibilities
may drop to between half to three quarters of a mile. Cloud
cover will remain all day Friday but will lift to bring all
terminals back to VFR status by the afternoon. Showers are
possible again, but are less likely for most of the region.
Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Repeated shower chances thanks to an upper level low to our west
will likely bring sub-VFR status to all terminals for the next few
days. A repeated pattern of overnight fog due to low level clouds is
also possible through the weekend. Confidence is increasing of
Invest 94L becoming a tropical storm and heading into the mainland
by early next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty on its exact
path, but the chance of precipitation from this system is
higher than it was 24 hours ago. This will be monitored closely
in the coming days.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...CG/VFJ
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...CG

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion