Fayal, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

327
FXUS63 KDLH 291940
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
240 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week.
- Increased northeast winds on Lake Superior tomorrow will lead to
  cooler by the lake conditions.
- Low chances for precipitation through most of the week. Better
  chances for showers and possibly storms return Friday and into
  the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Current Conditions/Tonight:
A prominent anticyclone lingers over the Ohio River Valley with
surface high pressure forcing southerly winds back across our region
this afternoon. We do have a stalled out boundary around the
International Border with scattered clouds moving across the
Northland. Overnight, we could see some isolated showers develop
along this boundary as some very weak shortwaves ride up the ridge
in place. However, model soundings show a fair amount of dry air
will still reside at the surface and may result in just some virga
through the early morning hours.
Tuesday - Wednesday:
The surface pressure gradient increases on Tuesday leading to
increased southeast winds across the land and enhanced northeast
winds through Lake Superior. Temperatures away from the Lake will be
in the mid and upper 70s. Areas near the Lake will see
favorable onshore flow leading to temps in the 60s. Low level
moisture does increase a bit and may lead to some sprinkles by
the afternoon hours but the model soundings still appear to be
low in terms of available moisture available to precipitate.
The high pressure that has been the main influencer over the region
starts to get nudged farther east on Wednesday with southerly winds
overtaking the region. More warm air advection and less influence
from Lake Superior (except along the North Shore) will lead
widespread highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Thus our abnormally warm
weather continues as these highs are 10-15F above normal for this
time of year.
Thursday into the Weekend:
The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance points to a weak boundary
moving across the region Thursday which may provide some light rain.
Ensembles show a larger range of solutions leading to less certainty
with this frontal passage. For now, we will carry 20-30% PoPs.
The better chances for active weather look to return Friday into the
weekend. A theta e ridge will move into the area highlighting an
influx of low level moisture. An upper level jet will also begin to
bend across the region as an upper level trough digs into the desert
southwest. Increased moisture paired with the increased shear of the
aforementioned jet may lead to thunderstorm chances being back on the
menu for the Northland. Still too much uncertainty with
placement of features to get into whether severe weather will be
in play.For now, it looks like we will maintain the ingredients
for thunderstorm potential from Friday into Sunday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions across the Northland this afternoon as high clouds
continue to roll across the region. Overnight we will look at a wind
shift with southeasterly winds becoming more dominant. A stalled
boundary along the International Border may bring some light rain to
INL tomorrow morning but CAMs are not real excited about the chances
and with the amount of dry air in place it may just end up being
virga. Lastly, there is some potential for some patchy fog to impact
HYR briefly tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A pressure gradient increase across Lake Superior will lead to
increasing winds tonight out of the northeast. Wind gusts upwards of
25 kts are expected with wave heights building to 5 ft at times. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of western Lake Superior.
Winds will turn more easterly on Wednesday and weaken, wave heights
will also gradually subside to 1-2 ft.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM CDT
     Tuesday for LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LSZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LSZ146-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion