Farris, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS64 KOUN 290354
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions to persist
   through the coming week.
- Low chance for a pattern change early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Some cirrus will continue to spread across the area today and
tonight with a plume of upper-level moisture spreading northeast
from the Pacific off of the coast of Baja California Sur.
Otherwise we remain primarily under the influence of the upper
ridge that extends from south Texas to the Great Lakes region and
any unsettled weather remains well to the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
An upper low located over the Wickenburg AZ area early this
afternoon is forecast to weaken and then lift northeast toward the
central High Plains. As this occurs, a shortwave moving through
the base of the trough over northwestern Mexico is forecast to
move toward West Texas and amplify somewhat as it moves toward the
forecast area on Monday. The main effect of this wave will
continue to be mid and high-level cloudiness spreading across the
area as low levels remain relatively dry, except a thin layer of
moisture moving in around 850 mb. High temperatures Monday will be
slightly lower than today with the cloudiness and the lower
heights/thicknesses over the area as the upper ridge gets shifted
east, but will still be above average for this time of year. On
Tuesday, this wave moves through and most of the moisture shifts
east ahead of it.
All this to say that quiet and warm weather persists.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The remainder of the week will feature another ridge building in
aloft and stretching across northwest Mexico northeastward towards
the Great Lakes. This will bring continued dry and unseasonably warm
conditions from the middle to the end of the work week. Cluster
analysis has a high probability (~85%) of a longwave trough across
the western CONUS by this weekend. However, the exact evolution
beyond next weekend of the wave will play a key role in any
potential change in the current weather pattern. So for now, the
start of October is looking to remain unseasonably warm and dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Light southeasterly winds with some variability in direction
continue. VFR conditions will prevail.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  62  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         88  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  87  62  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           87  58  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  61  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion