Fargo, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

890
FXUS62 KJAX 291104
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
704 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Tropical Storm Imelda Local Impacts This Week. High Risk of RipCurrents
  and High Surf through Mid Week. Small Craft Advisory through
  Thursday morning. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Tuesday
  through Friday. Locally Heavy Downpours along the coast through
  tonight. Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- Increased Chances of Showers/Storms Friday through Sunday
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The local pressure gradient continues to tighten as Tropical
Storm Imelda, currently over the northern Bahamas, gradually
strengthens as it shifts northward parallel to the FL Atlantic
coast into tonight. Breezy north-northeasterly winds develop today
with gusts ranging from 20 mph inland to 35 mph along the coast.
Rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms will shift onshore
today into tonight. WPC has placed a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for areas along and east of the I-95 corridor where the
best moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) is and the most likely location for
persistent bands to setup and produce locally heavy rainfall. With
strong NNE winds, highs today will range from the low 80s along
the SE GA coast to the mid/upper 80s west of the I-75 corridor.
Overnight lows will range in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Cyclone Imelda will be located about 300 miles southeast
of Jacksonville Beach Tuesday morning, and the forecast calls for
it to pull off to the east and northeast. With fairly large gyre
around Imelda our 500-1000 mb averaged winds locally be northerly
with fairly high moisture levels at 1.5 to 2 inch PWATs. Troughing
in the mid levels and some notable areas of convergence should
support some scattered convection during the day, mostly in the
aftn hours. Instability is somewhat lacking so most of the activity
maybe more showery than t-storms. Best POPs will be eastern zones
where higher moisture is located and better low level convergence
is denoted. Otherwise, highs will be toward more pleasant values
in the lower to mid 80s and winds will be northerly at times at
10-15 mph, but 15-20 mph coastal counties.
Tuesday night, Imelda is pulling further away from the area and
moisture levels drop so drier air will work into the area on deep
layer flow transitioning to some northwesterly component. A few
lingering coastal showers possible in the evening, but otherwise
dry and low temps fall into the lower 60s inland southeast GA and
mid 60s to about 70 deg elsewhere. Still some low level northerly
wind with the pressure gradient between Imelda and strong pressure
ridge well to the north. North-northeast wind of about 15 mph and
gusty expected immediate coastal areas.
Wednesday, Imelda tracks east to northeast toward the central
Atlantic, underneath the large ridge of high pressure. The ridge
is located from NE U.S. all the way to the Gulf Coast. PWAT values
are forecast to be about 1.3 to 1.5 inches and overall fairly
stable airmass aloft to generate anything more than a few showers
for the southeast zones covering mainly Flagler, St Johns, and
eastern Putnam counties. A rogue shower or two still remains
possible coastal areas coming off the Atlantic waters from Duval
county northward. Continued lower thicknesses support max temps
in the lower to mid 80s. Breezy northeast winds near 15-20 mph
continue at the coast given the moderate pressure gradient.
Wednesday night, the surface ridge is positioned due north of the
area while we see a long fetch of northeast winds off the Atlantic.
Models suggest there may be a better potential for isolated to scattered
coastal showers overnight. Best potential is over northeast FL. Breezy
northeast wind continues along the coast. The winds and the clouds
off the Atlantic will keep the coast mild in the upper 60s to
lower 70s while inland min temps in the lower to mid 60s are prevalent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Strong high pressure remains over the NE U.S. Thu to Fri and begins
to shift offshore and southeastward over the weekend. This will
initially support breezy northeast and east low level flow and a
moistening of the airmass. Will maintain scattered showers and
storms, especially along the coastal areas. Mid to upper levels
feature a mid level trough over the eastern Gulf. This trough in
in combination with the mid level high off the Mid Atlantic coast
moving southeast to shift our low and mid level winds to the
southeast, and thus draw tropical-like moisture into the region
during the course of the weekend. As a result, expect scattered
showers and storms to affect the forecast area over the weekend.
The more favorable pattern for rainfall this weekend may support
some heavy downpours and rain amounts, but would expect this
potential to be highest for the coastal areas and the St Johns
River Basin. High temperature are forecast in the lower 80s to
some upper 70s Thursday and Friday, and will begin to tick
upward by the weekend with most locations in the lower to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Rain showers will continue to move ashore this period, with the
greatest chances near the coast. Restrictions in showers and stratus
are forecast throughout this TAF period. Gusty winds can be
expected, especially closer to the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The local pressure gradient across the coastal waters tightens due
to a lingering frontal boundary over the waters and Tropical Storm
Imelda moving northward across the northern Bahamas. This tight
gradient will result in breezy winds with brief gusts to gale force
today into Tuesday. Seas will also continue to build due to swells
from Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto. Peak wave heights will
generally occur in tonight through Tuesday evening. Imelda then
begins to track eastward into the Atlantic Monday night into
Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue
through much of the week as high pressure strengthens over the
mid-Atlantic region maintaining breezy northeast winds.
Rip currents: Increasing onshore flow and swells from Imelda and
Humberto will lead to high rip current risk today and continuing
through much of the week.
Surf: Surf continues to build today and reaches into the 7-11 ft
range tonight into Wednesday. Surf will be slow to subside this
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Coastal flooding potential: Coastal water levels will be rising
through the week with breezy NE winds. PETSS mean water level
guidance generically shows only minor tidal flooding concerns for
Wednesday into the weekend as we enter the full moon cycle.
Localized spots could see slightly higher potential. Current
forecasts show up to about 2 ft MHHW at the coast and 1-2 ft MHHW
for the St Johns River Basin and Intracoastal Waterway.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  68  83  63 /  50  20  10   0
SSI  81  71  81  68 /  80  40  50  10
JAX  83  70  83  67 /  70  40  50  10
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  70  40  60  30
GNV  86  70  86  67 /  50  10  20  10
OCF  86  72  86  69 /  50  20  20  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday
     for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday
     for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion