Excelsior Estates, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

470
FXUS63 KEAX 020452
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unseasonably warm conditions, upwards of 10-15+ degrees above
  normal continue at least through the weekend, if not into
  early next week.
* Precipitation chances approaching 20-40% at times overnight
  Sunday thru Tuesday. No hazardous weather expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A surface ridge and mid-level ridging is in control over the area
today keeping conditions warm and dry. Highs this afternoon will top
out in the mid 80s...some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Tonight
into tomorrow morning, the mid-level ridge will break down as a mid-
level shortwave moves through the area.  The HRRR and NAMnest try to
produce a few showers in northeast KS and northwest MO tonight into
tomorrow morning however, dry air below 10kft would have to be
overcome. As we go through the day tomorrow a upper level trough
will dig into the west coast allowing upstream upper level ridging
to build back into the region. This will keep temperatures well
above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Upper level ridging
will remain in control over the area as the upper level trough slow
moves from the west coast moves through the central Rockies Friday
and Saturday. This will keep conditions warm and dry with highs
remaining in the mid 80s to near 90.
Saturday night into Sunday the upper level trough now over the
eastern Rockies will move northeastward into the northern Plains.
This will act to flatten the upper ridge over the region and will
sag a cold front into the area Sunday/Sunday night. This will
provide the next chance for precipitation to the area with higher
chances (20-30%) across the northwestern CWA. This cold front will
then continue to slowly sag into the area Monday into Tuesday and be
the focus for a few rounds of precipitation as several weak upper
shortwaves move through the area on quasi-zonal flow aloft. Severe
weather is not expected. Highs Sunday will remain in the mid to
upper 80s ahead of the cold front. Monday, with the cold front
bisecting the area the highs north of the Missouri River will be in
the 70s while south of the Missouri River highs will be in the 80s.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s to near 80.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with only mid
to high level clouds moving through and light southeasterly to
southerly winds less than 10kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion