Eureka, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

408
FXUS62 KRAH 230623
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
223 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will develop in the lee of the central and southern
Appalachians today, while high pressure will otherwise extend from
near Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Monday...
Dry tranquil weather will prevail across central NC through tonight.
500 mb analysis depicts a shortwave off the GA/SC coast which is
resulting in some convection that is largely offshore. This
disturbance will move NE, spreading some scattered to broken mid and
high clouds into central NC this afternoon through tonight,
especially in the east. Given ample stability and dry air in the low
levels and a surface ridge extending SW down the northern Mid-
Atlantic coast into the eastern Carolinas, no precipitation is
expected. Dew points have mixed out into the 50s at many spots this
afternoon with all the dry air just above the surface, and the
latest forecast reflects this trend and relies heavily on high-res
guidance for dew points. The ridge axis shifting eastward has turned
the low-level flow to a more E/SE direction instead of NE, helping
high temperatures reach near or a degree or two higher than
yesterday, mostly lower-to-mid-80s (maybe upper-80s near the SC
border).
Forecast soundings and winds going very light to calm from a relaxed
surface pressure gradient indicate patchy fog is possible again
tonight, locally dense, mainly over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain
near the surface ridge axis. However, the presence of mid and high
clouds there could be a limiting factor, especially if they hang
around longer than expected, as guidance has clouds thinning out
overnight. Furthermore, based on the relatively isolated nature of
fog the last few mornings, and backing off of low visibilities on
the latest HRRR runs, confidence in widespread dense fog is low.
Forecast lows are again in the upper-50s to lower-60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM Monday...
A short wave trough passing across the Ohio Valley may extend far
enough south, that when coupled with afternoon instability and
localized lift via the Piedmont trough... could result in a few
stray showers/tstms across our NW Triad zones Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere and farther east across central NC, fair weather
is expected due to the lingering ridge and slightly drier airmass.
Temps will continue to run above average for this time of year, and
perhaps a couple deg warmer than today.  Highs in the mid 80s north
and northwest to around 90 south and southeast. Lows Tuesday night
in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday...
An upper level low will be over the Great Lakes Wednesday morning
with an associated surface low across the Central Plains. Can`t rule
out a couple of showers Wednesday or Wednesday night across the
northern half of the forecast area, but the more likely chance for
rain will begin Thursday afternoon along and west of US-1. Rain is
likely across all locations Thursday night and Friday. There`s a bit
of model disagreement as to how quickly rain will move out - the 00Z
ECMWF dries things out pretty quickly Friday night, while the 12Z
GFS keeps a chance of showers through the weekend. The official
forecast keeps a 40-50% chance of showers Friday night, a 30-40%
chance of showers Saturday, then a 20% chance of showers Saturday
night and Sunday.
Hazards: Considering the slow movement of the system, there is a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of flash flooding Thursday along and
west of US-1, then across all locations on Friday. Despite the dry
conditions recently, the storm motion will likely be along the front
itself, meaning that storms could repeatedly move across the same
area. In addition, while there is a slight chance of thunderstorms
on Thursday and Saturday, the most likely day for thunderstorms will
be Friday as that will be the day with the greatest instability.
Considering the strength of the accompanying upper level system,
Friday could have some strong to severe thunderstorms, although the
Storm Prediction Center currently does not include any locations in
their outlooks past Wednesday.
Temperatures: Wednesday should be the warmest day out of the next
seven, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Highs
will drop a few degrees each day with additional cloud cover and
chances for rain, with highs on Saturday/Sunday around 80 and in the
70s on Monday. Lows will mostly be in the 60s, with some upper 50s
across the north Saturday and Sunday nights.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...
The exception to prevailing VFR conditions and light sswly surface
winds through the TAF period will be calm this morning and an
accompanying risk of shallow, radiation mist/fog and associated low
cloud bases and/or vertical visibility restrictions at RWI, FAY, and
perhaps also INT. Despite relatively richer and deeper low-level
moisture at ern terminal that would otherwise favor fog, the
presence of multi-layered mid and high clouds related to a
disturbance tracking through the ern Carolinas may limit fog
coverage and intensity there. A spatially separate area of fog/low
clouds may result from near CLT to INT, within a secondary low-level
moisture maximum and region of relatively clear skies favorable for
stronger radiational cooling and fog development. Where fog/low
clouds do develop, they should disperse quickly by 13-14Z.
Otherwise, widely scattered showers/storms will be possible at and
around INT and GSO this afternoon-evening, with limited (~20%)
probability of occurrence best reflected with a VCSH there for now.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again Wed and Thu
mornings, mainly at and east of RWI and FAY. Scattered showers/
storms are expected at INT/GSO again Wed afternoon-night. Their
probability of occurrence will increase and overspread all of cntl
NC Thu-Fri, with associated flight restrictions, then linger into
the upcoming weekend, as a slow-moving trough aloft and surface cold
front slowly traverse our region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion