Etna, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

189
FXUS61 KCAR 260900
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits across the Canadian Maritimes today. High
pressure crosses the region Saturday and a weak low approaches
Sunday. High pressure builds in through mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 AM Update...Rain associated with the low pressure system has
exited the area faster than anticipated leading to clearing
Downeast so adjusted PoPs and sky downward. Also reduced fog
probabilities Downeast due to the rapid onset of dry air.
The center of a low passing through Maine is currently over
central Maine and is expected to continue to move northeast
throughout the day. Radar shows that much of the precipitation
has already moved into New Brunswick as the warm front exits the
region. Current guidance suggests that most areas will be dry by
daybreak aside from an isolated shower across eastern Maine so
have adjusted the forecast accordingly. Also reduced the chance
of fog through early this morning as winds have remained
elevated such as to promote enough mixing for only low stratus,
especially near the coast. Friday will remain dry for southern
areas with warm temperatures in the mid 70s. Meanwhile, farther
north a secondary, weak cold front associated with another low
far to the north is expected to pass through the area bringing a
chance for showers to northern Maine. CAM guidance has been
more confident on rain chances than the NBM so increase PoPs
accordingly. Tonight, high pressure building in will lead to
clear skies and a light NW flow. Some fog may develop especially
in those areas that most recently received rainfall but have
overall low confidence in fog development as NW winds may be
just strong enough to promote low-level mixing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure will be cresting over the area by 00z Sunday.
As the night goes on ridge will build east into Canada with light
return flow beginning late. Warm front will be pushing in from the
west with clouds moving in late in the evening. Have gone just a
touch lower for than NBM for Saturday night low but slightly warmer
than previous fcst with low-mid 30s over lower elevations in the
north and mid-upr 40s for interior Downeast.
H5 low and associated trof axis will flatten ridge by 12z Sunday and
hv continued with idea of slgt chc showers over the north Sunday
morning before exiting to the east in the afternoon. Temps will be
able to rise into the 70s, which is about 5-10 degrees above normal.
Very little cold air exists behind fropa and expect little change in
airmass thru the end of the period.
Skies will clear Sunday evening though winds should remain mixed
overnight. Min temps Sunday night will be above normal with little
chance for radn/l cooling. Dewpoints should remain in the 40s with
another possible round of river valley fog late Sunday night into
early Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hipres will be building offshore Monday. Sunny skies are
expected during the day with temps rebounding into the 70s ahead of
a secondary cold front. Very little moisture looks to be available
to result in showers so fropa will bring chillier air to the area
early next week thru mid-week. More frost and freeze conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday night with H8 temps dropping below 0C.
Cold Canadian high pressure looks as though it will protect CWA from
tropical systems that are forecast to lurk off of the southeast
coast. All medium range guidance, including their ensemble means,
are showing two tropical systems in the Atlantic off of the
southeast coast of the U.S. While this is still a long way out and
depending on how these tropical systems interact, essentially
fujiwhara-ing around each other, will determine if any tropical
moisture can get drawn into the area but for the time being the
extended fcst looks to be dry.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions have improved faster than expected with
BGR now being VFR and expected to remain VFR throughout the day
today. IFR/LIFR conditions at CAR/PQI/FVE due to fog likely to
persist until an hour or so after daybreak before improving to
VFR. BHB remains at LIFR in low clouds but should begin to
improve over the next several hours. HUL is VFR/MVFR but could
decrease to IFR if fog develops there.
By mid-day all sites should be VFR and remain so through
Saturday. The only exceptions would be a low
confidence possible brief MVFR in afternoon showers at
CAR/PQI/FVE and some patchy fog tonight.
Winds S/SW becoming W/NW at 5 to 10 kts today. Light NW winds
tonight increasing to 5 to 10 kts Saturday.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Localized IFR fog possible after
midnight, especially at PQI and HUL. Light SW winds.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. W 5-15kts.
Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Possible IFR fog after midnight,
especially at PQI and HUL. WSW 5kts.
Monday-Tuesday...VFR. WSW 5-10kts, becoming NW Tuesday. Gusts 15-
20kts each afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all
the waters through Friday afternoon. Observations show winds
gusting to 30 kts on the outer waters and 25 kts on the inner
waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Expect winds to gradually decrease
throughout the day but seas should remain elevated. Winds and
seas below small craft advisory criteria Friday night through
Saturday.
SHORT TERM: Winds will remain below small craft levels through early
next week. Seas remain under 5ft through the period, though may see
southerly swell bringing waves to near 5ft over the outer waters
late on Tuesday, continuing through Thursday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Melanson
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Melanson/Buster
Marine...Melanson/Buster

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion