Eriline, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

530
FXUS63 KJKL 031839
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
239 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist into early
  next week.
- Into the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each night.
- Chances for rain will return for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
This afternoon through Tonight:
Guidance remains consistent for the short-term. High pressure
will dominate from the north and east, extending into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Aloft, a 500mb ridge will shift eastward but
maintain control. Expect isolated high thin cirrus and perhaps a
few cumulus clouds this afternoon. These will clear tonight as
daytime heating diminishes, leading to ridge/valley temperature
splits, with upper 40s to lower 50s in valleys and mid to upper
50s on ridges. Valley fog is also possible overnight. The lower
valley temperatures are being captured well by the COOP MOS
guidance and closer to the 5th percentile of the NBM.
Saturday:
Surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will continue to
influence the weather across the Ohio valley. Once again the
short-term guidance and forecast soundings indicate the potential
for a few cirrus or shallow cumulus clouds at most given the dry
air in place. It will be another warm day with mostly sunny skies
and light surface winds. Highs are expected to reach the lower 80s
for most locations, with some maybe slightly warmer (a couple of
degrees) than today base on the ensembles and deterministic
guidance.
Saturday Night:
Afternoon clouds will dissipate, resulting in mostly clear skies,
with the exception of a few high clouds in the far southeastern
portions of the area. Overnight lows will exhibit a persistent
pattern of ridge/valley splits, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 40s to lower 50s in valleys and mid to upper 50s on ridges.
One again valley fog is also possible. Once again, the lower
valley temperatures are being captured well by the COOP MOS
guidance and closer to the 5th percentile of the NBM.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
Mid-level high aloft will remain just east of the area Sunday
through Monday, but the area will gradually come under the influence
of increasingly southwesterly flow aloft by Monday as a weather
system approaches.
Models differ in their interpretation of this approaching system for
Tuesday into Wednesday, with the ECMWF depicting a less amplified
and more progressive shortwave, while the GFS depicts a more
amplified and slightly less progressive shortwave. Either way,
sufficient moisture will exist for most if not all areas to see
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but the ECMWF solution
generally favors a bit lesser rainfall than the GFS solution.
Overall NBM QPF has trended lower, closer to a range of two-tenths
to one-half inch, with this forecast package.
The cold front associated with this passing system crosses the area
Wednesday, lowering temperatures for both highs and lows by about 8
to 10 degrees. However, there are significant discrepancies between
the GEFS, GEPS, and EC ensembles with regards to placement and
strength of shortwaves past Wednesday, making the forecast a little
more uncertain with regards to temperatures for the end of the long-
term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will keep the TAFs
sites VFR through the period. There will be some fog that
develops once again tonight mainly in the sheltered valleys. The
winds will remain light generally less than 5 knots at most
sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...DJ

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion