Emily, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS63 KDLH 132047
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
347 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog and low clouds are expected to develop once
  again tonight into Sunday morning.
- Unseasonably warm and summer-like temperatures are expected
  through Tuesday. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.
- On-and-off chances for showers and storms next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Fog and stratus continue to be a big concern during this
forecast. While the fog and stratus from this morning have
largely cleared up, there is a relatively small area lingering
from the tip of Lake Superior extending inland into eastern
Carlton county. It is keeping areas near the lake in Duluth,
Minnesota Point, Superior, Proctor, Wrenshall and Carlton all
under clouds, but Cloquet and Hermantown have broken out into
sunshine. Superior is only in the low 60s, but the Duluth
Airport us up to 70 as of 2pm. This is a fairly typical fall
pattern, and I expect it to continue for a few more days. There
are good signals for more fog once again tonight, but perhaps a
bit more limited in area tonight than last night. I strongly
suspect we will need a dense fog advisory for at least the Twin
Ports area tonight, but we will wait and see on how things
develop this evening to see which other areas also will need an
advisory tonight. Areas around Lake Superior have the next
highest probability. There are signals for another round of fog
again Sunday night, mainly from around the greater Twin Ports
region norh along the North Shore near Lake Superior.
Synoptically, we have a narrow upper level ridge over the
region, with warm air advection ongoing at the low and mid
levels which is contributing to the warm and humid air that has
moved into the area. This pattern continues through Sunday, with
the upper level ridge slowly shifting east and allowing even
more heat and moisture to build into the area into early next
week. A fairly potent shortwave pushes across the plains towards
the Northland on Sunday, and should be able to bring some small
chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder to at least
our MN areas beginning Sunday night, and lingering into Monday
before it is pushed north by the ridge and precipitation chances
drop off again for Monday night into Tuesday. This pattern will
also keep us with above normal temperatures. While we are not
looking at any record high temperatures, we may approach record
warm low values the next few days.
Broad troughing will push slowly across the region through next
week, bringing precipitation chances to the area through much
of next week, which will be highest on Wednesday and Thursday
when the axis of the trough is closest. Southerly flow over much
of the the upper Mississippi Valley through the first half of
the work week will bring moisture and lift from impulses
rotating through the broader trough. We could see a couple
different waves of rain and storms beginning Monday
afternoon/evening and again Wednesday into Thursday. This
southerly flow will also keep temperatures near to above normal
through the middle part of the week. By the end of the week, the
upper level trough gradually shifts east of the Northland,
allowing temperatures to return to near normal temperatures,
even as small precipitation chances linger through the end of
the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Dense fog remains the main concern this TAF period. Fog from
early this morning has finally dissipated as of issuance time,
though it remains in the vicinity of KDLH and will continue to
affect KDYT and KSUW. Diurnally driven cumulus today has brought
some MVFR cielings to KINL and the Arrowhead, but these will
gradually lift through the day. Tonight fog will develop once
again, with a similar pattern to the last couple days. Have
brought KDLH to VLIFR for several hours, but the remaining sites
should get no worse than LIFR for a few hours overnight before
improving once again by 15z Sunday.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Areas of fog will return for tonight into Sunday morning, and
again Sunday night into Monday morning. The worst visibilities
will be in the southwestern tip of the lake near the Twin Ports.
A dense fog advisory has been issued for this area beginning
this afternoon through tomorrow morning, but it may need to be
expanded to additional areas tonight.
Breezy northeast winds are causing building waves into the
southwest arm as well, and conditions may become hazardous for
mariners at times this afternoon and early evening before winds
diminish again. These northeast winds will increase for several
hours again on Sunday, and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed.
Gusts may approach 25 knots, causing waves to build to around 3
feet.
The next chance for showers and storms is Monday afternoon and
evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion