Elmwood, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

780
FXUS61 KBOX 271830
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
230 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Some showers are possible late tonight into early Sunday,
mainly along the south coast, otherwise rather warm conditions
will continue into early next week. A dry cold front will push
south of New England Tuesday followed by much cooler
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as strong high pressure
builds to the north. Temperatures moderate Friday as the high
pressure moves over New England.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Some showers possible late tonight, particularly along the south
  coast
Dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of today with
partly cloudy skies. A weak low pressure off the Mid Atlantic
coast moves just south of New England tonight, bringing with it
the chance for some scattered showers along the south coast.
Guidance continues to vary a bit with regards to the northern
extent of these showers; the latest HREF keeps any appreciable
QPF well to the south of New England while the GFS and ECMWF
bring just under 0.1" up to parts of central MA and the Boston
metro area. The latest CMC has trended more towards NAM
guidance, keeping precip over the south coast and Islands. Some
of the high-res guidance has some showers making their way
further north and inland, but no appreciable QPF is associated
with them. In general, the highest chances for some showers
continue to be over the south coast and especially the Islands
after midnight tonight. Lows tonight expected to be in the upper
50s and low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Skies clear out Sunday morning with more humidity and warmer than
  normal high temperatures
* Cooler Sunday night
Showers from the passing low Saturday night will clear out heading
into Monday morning. High pressure that`s moved over the Great Lakes
will continue to spread eastward into southern New England. Clouds
will clear over the region from NW to SE as drier air begins to move
in. 925 mb temperatures aloft will be around 20C Sunday afternoon,
and with SW winds, highs in the upper 70s and low 80s are very
likely especially across the interior. Surface moisture will remain
elevated as dew points remain in the 60s Sunday afternoon, so it may
feel a bit humid.
This moisture diminishes going into Sunday night, which will be more
noticeable over the interior where dew points fall in the low 50s and
upper 40s. PWAT values go from around 1" during the day to at or
below 0.5" by Monday morning. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s over the interior with slightly higher temps into the
low 60s possible over the coastal areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Warm and dry to start the work week Monday and Tuesday
* Trending much cooler Wednesday - Friday and then warming again
  into next weekend
* Hurricane Humberto stays well offshore southern New England, but
  will likely bring high surf and dangerous rip currents to coastal
  areas during the middle of next week
Monday and Tuesday
High pressure builds over southern New England from west to east on
Monday and Tuesday. Air mass will be warmer than normal to start the
work week with 925 hPa temps near 16C. This will support afternoon
high temperatures in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday. Expect sunny
conditions with high pressure suppressing any significant cloud cover.
Wednesday through Saturday
Hurricane Humberto is expected to stay well offshore from southern
New England during the middle of next week. However, we`re likely to
experience high surf and dangerous rip currents along the
coastlines. A very large area of high pressure builds south from
Canada on Wednesday with a much cooler air mass. 925 hPa temps
plummet to near 5C on Wednesday. This will support cooler
temperatures with afternoon highs in the 50s/60s and overnight lows
in the upper 30s/low 40s (upper 40s/low 50s near the coast).
Chilliest temperatures expected Thursday night. Generally a quiet
weather weak with high pressure firmly in control through next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z Update...
Today...High Confidence.
VFR. Light SE-S winds continue through the afternoon along with
local sea breezes.
Tonight and Sunday...Moderate Confidence.
Mostly VFR, but patchy MVFR-IFR stratus/fog is possible late
tonight in the CT valley. Also a few showers may develop near
the south coast late tonight, though a low chance exists for
some showers making their way further north around ORH, BOS,
BED. Ceilings associated with SHRA should mainly be VFR further
north with MVFR/IFR along the south coast and the Islands with
higher SHRA concentration.
Improving conditions with decreasing cloud cover from NW to SE
on Sunday.
Sunday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. SW winds becoming NW-NNW.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Spot shower possible
later tonight between 07-10z, though chance remains low.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...
Monday through Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Some showers and lower visibilities possible tonight over the
southern waters associated with a weak low pres. Otherwise,
tranquil boating conditions through Sunday night with light
winds and seas as weak high pres will be over the waters.
Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 12 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/RM
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Hrencecin/RM
MARINE...Hrencecin/RM

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion